Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?


#2798

True, I do not really blame Tim Cook.

With high affordability, US people buy new versions, while Asia market is one or two version old with low cost sells. Apple’s China market (20% of iPhone sales) is completely shut off now.

Even if Trump+Xi signs agreement tomorrow, Court order will not be reversed.

I bought one lot at $225 which I do not think it will come back in 2 or 3 or 5 years. It takes years to get back again or take a loss !

Oops, buy and hold is nightmare :grin: Neither buy after 5% dip will also work.:grinning:

See how this professor made money, exact timing shorting stocks (AAPL and AMZN).


#2799

He is well followed :grinning:


#2800

That prof is nuts. :-1:


#2801

He has Bloomberg terminal access (Monthly $24000 subscriptions), runs all statistics for economy etc as this is his management business classes.

I missed reading his documents, came to know recently his post of shorting (after the fact)! My mistake !!


#2802

He is too good on valuation and he is nutty in calculations. He has posted when he shorted first and explained at that time itself. Then releasing time.

Practically, he did that shorting perfect timing and releasing perfect timing. He would have almost made multi-millions with his knowledge - for sure.

When he does those and practically showing how he did, making money, it has value. Above all, it is not so easy to do with market like this.

Most of the Millennials follow him, basically his students…


#2803

Aswath Damodaran has been incorrect on FB and others in the past.


#2804

Yes, no one can be right all the time! He is right on AAPL and AMZN, that is all !


#2805

Good piece:

We have now established $1500 as the absolute maximum price for an iPhone. The era of relentlessly increasing ASP has ended.

On the other hand only 10B out of 80B revenue comes from services. Services is simply too small a base to make up for any hiccup in hardware sales, and it shows perfectly today. To make up for the 5B lost in iPhone sales, services would have to make 50% more in a quarter. That shows the scale we are taking about.

That’s why I have been saying “Apple as a service company” narrative is bullshit. The mismatch in scale is just too big.


#2806

Exactly… just because he teaches Finance?? at NYU does not mean he is God.


#2807

No one told here he is GOD ! If you assume, based on my postings, you are biased against him, that is all.

All he has given is some analysis, it is up you to do research, analysis on our own. If that analysis helps, you get benefited. It if it is wrong, it is up to you to ignore it.

After that fact, I find him right, it does not mean he is always right !

It is our money and our decision.


#2808

ok dude you’re right…


#2809

Manch analyses like an UCLA graduate, sound like 108 instead of 128 :exploding_head:


#2810

Are you saying manch’s IQ is only 108?


#2811

I do graduate level math and physics for leisure though. :smile:


#2812

What is Aswath’s long term investment returns?


#2813

.

I read philosophy for leisure :triumph:


#2814

I came to know about him from his book “Valuation-purchased from Amazon”, looks like he has been with stocks longer time.

I had the same idea that nutty professors are always have bookish knowledge (not practical) until my friend texted me that this person shorted (gave the link) with perfect timing !

Now, I am making a point that I read his pages regularly (better late than never).

Second, I do not look at what he made from stocks, waste of time taking statistics, but read some of his analysis to know about company valuation.


#2815

That’s so sad. Try some hanky-panky for leisure instead.


#2816

Looks like AAPL gave you enough comfort to read philosophy :thinking:


#2817

Get so comfy that I didn’t bother to look at the chart properly, missed the big bearish divergence developed during Sep-Oct last year. Now looking for a bullish divergence.