Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?


#2818

I differ here. Read the details and let me know whether it is too conservative or something missing.

You are seeing technical side, but the change is fundamental (As per Tim Cook statement). Assume that apple iphones (Except new ones) are cut from mainland China, keeping all other products available for sales.

Here is my view (it may be right or wrong).

Apple’s major issue is China banning old iphones. China sales account 19.55% of iphone sales from mainland China.

See page 26 (for 19.55%) of this report https://s22.q4cdn.com/396847794/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/10-K-2018-(As-Filed).pdf

Since the Chinese court blocked old iphones (main cheap sales) based on QCOM challenge, which came middle of last qtr, Apple sales dropped 7 Billion. If it is full qtr, it would have been 14 Billion, almost 13%-14% sales target of apple.

With this, I cut short of future qtrs by 13.5% (balance 4.5% for other apple products) from last 4 qtr financial results. Apple is very likely meet 53B, 46B and 54B revenue for future qtrs other than current 84B.

If this figures are right, we are going back to Q1FY17, Q2FY17, Q3FY17, Q4FY17 range.

The Apple may worst touch $120 (lowest), best is $135(likely chances).

I may be right or wrong, review, monitor the trend how it goes.


#2819

What are you differing? I didn’t make any forecast.


#2820

Finally read the Letter from Tim Cook to Apple investors

Today we are revising our guidance for Apple’s fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:

  • Revenue of approximately $84 billion

Previous guidance is $89B to $93B

Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline.

$5B to $9B drop due to iPhone ban in China or to Huawei response to arrest of its CFO?

While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China.

A little confused. Is this a PC version of previous reasons?


#2821

Only question we small investors need to think about is: what’s Apple’s likely trajectory going to be in the next 24 months. I am pessimistic for all the reasons I have been writing about for more than a year.


#2822

Apple revising forecast after 17 years ! I agree, no doubt.


#2823

Maybe it’ll get better after 36 months.


#2824
  1. We missed Fedex revision of forecast last month, same reasons and end up 10% fall !

Executives listed a panoply of vulnerable markets: China, which has been hit by its trade fight with the United States; Britain, which has slowed sharply since July amid the Brexit morass; and other weak links in Europe, including Italy, France and Belgium – the latter two both slowed by “yellow vest protests.”

FedEx trimmed its projection for adjusted earnings to a range of $15.50 to $16.60 per share from the prior $17.20 to $17.80 per share.

Today, bond yield falls.

  1. Bond Yields Fall, Dollar Weakens After Biggest ISM Manufacturing Slump Since '08 - TheStreet

Inspite of oil price fallen, DAL cuts forecast today, another 9% fall on airline stocks

  1. Delta Cuts Revenue Forecast, Sparking Airline Selloff - WSJ

Cool run-away. All I see is DCB happening now.


#2825

Medium term may be cloudy but long term Apple is still a great company. So don’t get too pessimistic. My guess is that the stock will be flattish around this level or even a little lower. But it’s still making truck load of profits. It will be like Microsoft before it finds itself a growth engine in cloud computing.


#2826

.

It has already found! Services. SJ transformed Apple from a company focuses on creatives and education to a consumer electronics company. Now, TC wants to transform Apple into a Services company, is a long road so don’t keep saying is not large enough, of course is not large enough YET because is still early innings, look ahead, look around the corner. And the reason for revised guidance is not a pricing issue of iPhone Xs/XsMax/XR (don’t listen to that blogger and the web). The main culprit is tariff war. iPhone ban, Huawei instigated anti-Apple and general anti-American products arise from the tariff war. Apple can’t solve the geo-political issue, Al Gore is ineffective against Trump. The strategy to encourage upgrade, IMHO, is to enlarge the market for future services that need the hardware capabilities of the iPhone X series. Apple might even do PAAS (platform as a service) strategy if that is the effective way to get more iPhone X series into the hands of the customers. In other words, executing according to plan.

以不变应万变, 处变不惊

PM is re-bouncing.


#2827

Even though many analysts were predicting apple is going to go down, I trusted Tim Cook’s forecast more than others. Tim Cook/Mgmt knows the slowdown trend, and cancelled many suppliers purchase orders, but did not inform the public.

The trust is broken and not sure how much more hidden issues over the next 12-15 months.

Poor me, lost lot of money, still holding some as I do not want to sell at deep loss! This is the one of the biggest failure last year while TSLA, TEVA helped me positive side.

At the same time, I bagged nicely AT&T (T at $27) defying prediction (heavy debt), it appreciated 10% and additionally giving me 7.5% dividend yield.

Same way, many shorted/disliked TSLA, but consistently given me returns.

IMHO, it is not how the company is, but it is what we make finally.


#2828

I wonder if Steve Jobs would have thought the same…


#2829

Yup, I think Apple should just pull out of China and stop hiring any Chinese looking people.


#2830

It’s been happening for years. Back when iPod Nano was an important product, there was a counterfeit launched within a week of the real Nano. It was obvious people inside were leaking info. That’s how a counterfeit was available at almost the same time. Manufacturing in China is a bit like dealing with the devil. You know at some point you’re going to get screwed, but the prices are low enough you take the risk.


#2831

Re-bouncing but doesn’t imply Cycle degree wave II is completed. Very common to have a counter-trend of 38.2% in a zig-zag, common EW wave pattern for wave two (generic label). There is a minimum time target for completion but I have forgotten how to compute :hugs: - forgotten over 90% of what I have read/ learned :sweat_smile:


#2832

Better than getting Samsung as the component supplier. Apple has to give it many years of plan. I hope the new Campus in Austin means something big is happening. Austin is the second biggest semi city after Santa Clara. I would rather competitors copying Apple than trying to replace Apple. Tail chasing means competitors are always behind.


#2833

Here comes the ambulance chaser.


#2834

Expected this to come, no doubt. Tim Cook knowingly hidden the information till the end. Finally, he may pay some millions (worst case some billions) after few years.


#2835

Not sure if Cook intentionally hid the info but the change to not disclose iPhone unit sales is very poorly timed.


#2836

Tim Cook is not Steve Jobs or Elon Musk. He follows everything by the book. I’m sure those lawsuits are without merit.


#2837

iPhone XR Takes 32% of Sales in First Month of Availability

Among iPhone buyers, 82% upgraded from an iPhone, while 16% upgraded from an Android phone. At the November 2017 launch of iPhone X, 86% upgraded from an iPhone, and 11% upgraded from Android. Following the September 2017 launch of iPhone 8 and 8 Plus and before the iPhone X was available, 87% upgraded from an iPhone, while 12% upgraded from Android.
“It appears that iPhone XR did serve to attract current Android users,”, said Mike Levin, CIRP Partner and Co-Founder.

Contrary to widespread media reporting and a certain blogger, iPhone X series is so value for money that even Android users upgrade in droves :nerd_face: