Today we are revising our guidance for Apple’s fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:
Revenue of approximately $84 billion
Previous guidance is $89B to $93B
Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline.
$5B to $9B drop due to iPhone ban in China or to Huawei response to arrest of its CFO?
While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China.
A little confused. Is this a PC version of previous reasons?
Only question we small investors need to think about is: what’s Apple’s likely trajectory going to be in the next 24 months. I am pessimistic for all the reasons I have been writing about for more than a year.
We missed Fedex revision of forecast last month, same reasons and end up 10% fall !
Executives listed a panoply of vulnerable markets: China, which has been hit by its trade fight with the United States; Britain, which has slowed sharply since July amid the Brexit morass; and other weak links in Europe, including Italy, France and Belgium – the latter two both slowed by “yellow vest protests.”
FedEx trimmed its projection for adjusted earnings to a range of $15.50 to $16.60 per share from the prior $17.20 to $17.80 per share.
Medium term may be cloudy but long term Apple is still a great company. So don’t get too pessimistic. My guess is that the stock will be flattish around this level or even a little lower. But it’s still making truck load of profits. It will be like Microsoft before it finds itself a growth engine in cloud computing.
It has already found! Services. SJ transformed Apple from a company focuses on creatives and education to a consumer electronics company. Now, TC wants to transform Apple into a Services company, is a long road so don’t keep saying is not large enough, of course is not large enough YET because is still early innings, look ahead, look around the corner. And the reason for revised guidance is not a pricing issue of iPhone Xs/XsMax/XR (don’t listen to that blogger and the web). The main culprit is tariff war. iPhone ban, Huawei instigated anti-Apple and general anti-American products arise from the tariff war. Apple can’t solve the geo-political issue, Al Gore is ineffective against Trump. The strategy to encourage upgrade, IMHO, is to enlarge the market for future services that need the hardware capabilities of the iPhone X series. Apple might even do PAAS (platform as a service) strategy if that is the effective way to get more iPhone X series into the hands of the customers. In other words, executing according to plan.
Even though many analysts were predicting apple is going to go down, I trusted Tim Cook’s forecast more than others. Tim Cook/Mgmt knows the slowdown trend, and cancelled many suppliers purchase orders, but did not inform the public.
The trust is broken and not sure how much more hidden issues over the next 12-15 months.
Poor me, lost lot of money, still holding some as I do not want to sell at deep loss! This is the one of the biggest failure last year while TSLA, TEVA helped me positive side.
At the same time, I bagged nicely AT&T (T at $27) defying prediction (heavy debt), it appreciated 10% and additionally giving me 7.5% dividend yield.
Same way, many shorted/disliked TSLA, but consistently given me returns.
IMHO, it is not how the company is, but it is what we make finally.
It’s been happening for years. Back when iPod Nano was an important product, there was a counterfeit launched within a week of the real Nano. It was obvious people inside were leaking info. That’s how a counterfeit was available at almost the same time. Manufacturing in China is a bit like dealing with the devil. You know at some point you’re going to get screwed, but the prices are low enough you take the risk.
Re-bouncing but doesn’t imply Cycle degree wave II is completed. Very common to have a counter-trend of 38.2% in a zig-zag, common EW wave pattern for wave two (generic label). There is a minimum time target for completion but I have forgotten how to compute - forgotten over 90% of what I have read/ learned
Better than getting Samsung as the component supplier. Apple has to give it many years of plan. I hope the new Campus in Austin means something big is happening. Austin is the second biggest semi city after Santa Clara. I would rather competitors copying Apple than trying to replace Apple. Tail chasing means competitors are always behind.
Expected this to come, no doubt. Tim Cook knowingly hidden the information till the end. Finally, he may pay some millions (worst case some billions) after few years.
Among iPhone buyers, 82% upgraded from an iPhone, while 16% upgraded from an Android phone. At the November 2017 launch of iPhone X, 86% upgraded from an iPhone, and 11% upgraded from Android. Following the September 2017 launch of iPhone 8 and 8 Plus and before the iPhone X was available, 87% upgraded from an iPhone, while 12% upgraded from Android.
“It appears that iPhone XR did serve to attract current Android users,”, said Mike Levin, CIRP Partner and Co-Founder.
Contrary to widespread media reporting and a certain blogger, iPhone X series is so value for money that even Android users upgrade in droves
Yes, it may not be intentional, but he should have done ahead of time (as soon as they reduced vendor orders and at least China court banned) as mgmt knows access to local forecasting (plenty of software they use).
Apple has lost 450 Billion market cap between Sep and now, plenty of big investors would have lost billions/multi-millions, easy to pay lawyers and extract cash from Apple like class action lawsuit. This may run for months and years before they prove and settle mostly offline settlement. This is exactly like Elon Tweet experiment. Some SEC rules will come to play now.
A lot of components have 12-20 week lead times. Orders for contract manufacturers are 8-12 weeks in advance. The phones for calendar Q4 were mostly built in Q3. Apple always lowers orders in Q4, since those are for Q1 which is always lower units.
That’s why modular designs and using the same components is key. It creates more flexibility to change manufacturing mix closer to final production. It also lets you buffer by only having to buffer unique components for each version instead of all components.
- forgotten over 90% of what I have read/ learned 
