I differ here. Read the details and let me know whether it is too conservative or something missing.
You are seeing technical side, but the change is fundamental (As per Tim Cook statement). Assume that apple iphones (Except new ones) are cut from mainland China, keeping all other products available for sales.
Here is my view (it may be right or wrong).
Apple’s major issue is China banning old iphones. China sales account 19.55% of iphone sales from mainland China.
See page 26 (for 19.55%) of this report https://s22.q4cdn.com/396847794/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/Q4/10-K-2018-(As-Filed).pdf
Since the Chinese court blocked old iphones (main cheap sales) based on QCOM challenge, which came middle of last qtr, Apple sales dropped 7 Billion. If it is full qtr, it would have been 14 Billion, almost 13%-14% sales target of apple.
With this, I cut short of future qtrs by 13.5% (balance 4.5% for other apple products) from last 4 qtr financial results. Apple is very likely meet 53B, 46B and 54B revenue for future qtrs other than current 84B.
If this figures are right, we are going back to Q1FY17, Q2FY17, Q3FY17, Q4FY17 range.
The Apple may worst touch $120 (lowest), best is $135(likely chances).
I may be right or wrong, review, monitor the trend how it goes.