Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?





In the early years, Xiaomi phones look very alike iPhone and sell for half the price. Now ditto for Huawei, Oppo and Vivo. In a competitive market, especially near or matured market, it is expected competitors would close in to the leaders in quality. Is why it is critical for the leaders to innovate like crazy, and at the end of the S curve, come up with new products to replace the matured products. Is a sop. Apple is doing sop. Geo politics cause the sale decline in China much faster than Apple expected. No need to talk micro, you are talking about this tree that tree when the forest has been screwed. Is a China issue, not a product strategy issue.


Being in America,affordable higher range of costs, I still use iPhone+apple watch+air pods with quality and long battery life. Those are the only two benefits.

As an investor, no hype works, but practically see any growth in Apple exists now?

Apple iphone sales price is doubled over competitors and in america trade-barrier, against Huawei+others, helps apple. It will continue with Trump.

You can not expect a big come back, for apple, outside of USA. This means growth is stalled,18-24 months, not expanding market as they can not increase the price.

Until 5G comes into market, Apple stays flat or down than growth.

Apple’s 2nd best revenue base is China with 15%-20% range, that will be an issue.


They did increase price because of rising US dollar.

China issues are:
Tariff war
iPhone ban
Anti-Apple movement
Declining economy
Rising dollar
Chinese manufacturers are getting better every day - quality, marketing, price

IMHO, Apple is well aware of almost all of above issues and has crafted its product strategy and guided revenue accordingly. The big surprise is the arrest of a CFO.

My point is not what you said is incorrect but they are accounted for in the guidance. What we want to know is what cause the revision. Remember, the main cause for revision in guidance is due to the larger than expected sale drop of iPhones. Remember, the original guidance is a range, which has accounted for the unpredictability of all those issues.


Companies like Apple are very big and they would have streamlined the forecast process. They gave a range between $88B to 92.3B. They provide a range based on various factors, permutations and combination of sales, revenue risk.

The reduction/revision is 5% of lowest range which is not common and would not have happened suddenly after Jan 1st.

They knew the issues since they declared “Not telling iphone sales numbers”. Right from then analysts were predicting “Apple will not meet its sales target” based on various Apple order cancellations.

This shows clearly Tim Cook knows and did not revise till end.

See the difference how FB Mark Z declared, margin reduction…etc. He is transparent to public well in advance.

FB came down from $217 to $128 with due transparent information to public.

Apple came down $232 to $142 without transparent information to public.

That is the difference and the way Tim Cook handled is not correct.


That does sound a little sneaky but not anything unlawful I don’t think :slight_smile:


Don’t think TC is a sneaky person. Revised guidance is worse than the lower range by a lot, $5B, and Apple response appears to be short-term (referring to allowing giveback program to include Huawei & Oppo Android). Just to be clear, Apple has a long term issue which you have been pounding on and a short term issue related to tariff war & its ramifications (which of course has long term effect). Apple is tackling the end of S curve of iPhone with giveback program, upgrade program and iOS 12/ battery replacement (better to hold on to customers). Of course, also with new products like :watch: AirPods. Recently the existing strategy to deal with emerging economies is not working well, need better ones… competing in price is a slippery slope, if come down to price, IMHO, should exit the :dog2: market. Apple has long chosen not to compete in price from day 1, it allows Android to grow market share to a large %. I do agree with manch a little here, should make a little less profit and a larger market share.


This is correct and this is what expected from a CEO of Established company. Conservative estimate is far better than failure.

Except China court ruling out based on QCOM, TC knew less demand ahead (as open market analysts were able to guess and stock starting sinking day by day based on street analysts) !



Finally, there is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to consider with its 12X 2019 EPS multiple and $130B net cash position. “Assuming Apple’s multiple returns to its 13.6 average, the stock is worth $166.46. Add back $27 in net cash per share—a logical step given that Apple has finally promised to bring its cash position to zero—and Apple is worth $194, 31% above its latest close,” writes Tae Kim.



Buy at the open 2mrw? Use GTC buy, I find I am always emotionally affected, so GTC buy or sell is best for me, higher selling and lower buying price. For all the troubles every media talk about, nobody seem that to say that price has overshot.


Narratives don’t change overnight. Long term apple is good short term there will be some pressure. Let me sit on my ass a bit more. :smile:


If you think the bottom is likely to be between $100-$120, and the bottoming process would take up to a year, short put (leaps 2020 $100-$120) is good. No margin cost :grinning: I notice high volume and OI for leaps 2020 $100. Wondering aloud whether this is TC or WB put.


When pressed by reporters about impact of tariff war on China, Trump says Apple will be ‘fine,’ should still move iPhone production to US. Tariff war has resulted in:
Faster than expected Chinese economy slowdown, iPhone ban, anti-Apple sentiments, higher than expected price in yuan because of fast strengthening dollar, …



Read the article yesterday, a long winded anecdote about lengthening replacement cycle due to nearing end of S curve. This is WS worry since 2015. May be at the plateau of the S curve now. Apple has been subtly discounting :iphone: may be a good time to be more aggressive, give discounts for androids, currently only for China up to end Jan.


This is the result of untimely revised estimate !

AAPL down 0.61%, while SNAP is up 3.11% :rofl:



Good. Jil has thrown in his towel. I believe you threw at $100 in 2017 :face_with_hand_over_mouth: the rapid drop from $232 to now probably mean momentum traders and margin guys are out too.


Last year, aapl was the highest loss for me. How can I love that stock? It has taken almost 50% of what TSLA gave me !

The CEO lost his integrity !

I can not forget AAPL and TSLA !


That’s why you should do long term buy and hold. Look at me, I still love AAPL no matter what :slight_smile: