Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?


WB’s intent is the same as everybody else’s: to make money. I think we can just focus on the likely result, that is whether AAPL will deliver good total return: appreciation of stock price + dividend.

Nobody knows for sure. We are all just guessing. I just think the guy sums up my own bear case pretty well.


Guessing is the wrong choice of word. Educated judge calls.


First define what is meant by good total return. If you mean high growth like those of 10x stocks, definitely no way. What about the historical annualized return of S&P of 7-11% for the next decade? How hard can that be?

Annualized return since,
Apr 2012 = 13.65%
Apr 2013 = 25.14%
Apr 2014 = 21.56%
Apr 2015 = 10.36%
Apr 2016 = 27.54%
Apr 2017= 18.33%

So far so good. Of course, past performance is no guaranteed of future results.
Do you own due diligence and make the educated judgement calls as to whether can still return 7-11% if you invest on Monday :slight_smile:

Btw, don’t impose the decision of one who didn’t own any shares to one who’ve held the shares because the considerations is not the same. I have to point out this explicitly because I realize many bloggers’ comments seem to ignore the difference.


Beware of the endowment bias. Difference should be zero after adjusting for long term cap tax. Anything extra is purely psychological.


Are you implying WB only aims for return same as S&P?


The key sentence is here.


This is just an article, not a profound research. I can blindly say AAPL will meet Tim Cook last quarterly foretasted figures.

There are plenty of forecast software they (CEO team) run using various products, regions and finally declare the forecast. IMO, CEOs team used to review those figures to actual results on daily, weekly and monthly basis. That is the main reason, they are put in insider (who knows company financials).

No big company, like AAPL, fails to meet the forecast unless economy tanks.

The brighter side for AAPL is tax reduction (Increased profit), changes in supply chain (increases profit) - there are (will be) supply chain changes happening re-routing shipments to get max benefit from US tax and tariff changes.


IMO, You should not be concerned too much what WB is trying do.

His decision is one among the factors, but do you individually feel AAPL is worth buy or hold or sell, that really matters.

I am confident AAPL is going to spike after results, trying to speculatively buy at 158 and 160 (if it hits that figure).

Having done some research for AAPL, I am tempted to Speculative trade AAPL now. I have just try to buy trade (GTC) at $160 (confident to pick) and $158 (in case AAPL falls this range, pick 150% of $160 pick)

This is pure speculative as I may sell AAPL any time later (wuqijun to note - not necessarily holding long)


I don’t put much weight into what WB does. But since you guys seem to be, I want to make sure your reasoning is consistent.


I was mentioning one aspect. The other is you need to find another place to park the proceedings.


Anytime you don’t hold long, you lose. Think about the Tsla you sold too early and the rental that you sold last year. You probably thought they were a good sell at that time but reality proved you wrong. You will forever be trapped in this losing cycle unless you completely change your mindset.


No. I told you previously that my long term plan is to move the asset allocation to RE and S&P index (no more individual stocks). Hence, so long annualized return of AAPL is at least the same as S&P index, there is no point for me to do anything. In other words, using irrationally bullish on me holding AAPLs i.e. implying that I’m thinking of high growth like you wanted is incorrect unless you mean going for S&P return is irrationally bullish :wink: losing money is the right expectation :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes: So far AAPL is good to me :man_dancing: exceeds my expectation :sunglasses:



No need to reason with @manch. He has proven to us through his posts that he is an impulsive and irrational investor who thinks too highly of his stock picking ability.


I hope Your AAPL or any other long holding stocks are exception as there no point in selling those dividend payers even if it dips 50%. Paying tax on capital gain is waste than getting eternal dividends.


Here is an interesting topic on AAPL and S&P 500.


Trump, Apple CEO Cook to talk trade at White House



The whole market reversed.


Apple’s iPhone X delivered a KO punch to cheap Androids: Q1 smartphone demand slumped globally but ASP grew by 21%

New data from GfK shows that global demand for smartphones declined by 2 percent year over year in the March quarter while Average Selling Prices grew by 21 percent, totally contradicting the media narrative that customers were looking to save money and would shy away from Apple’s premium-priced iPhone 8 and iPhone X.


Survey Finds Early Adopters of iPhone X Very Satisfied With All Features Except Siri

On a feature-by-feature basis, the iPhone X saw very high satisfaction rates in all but one area, including Face ID and battery life at above 90 percent. The sole exception was Siri, which scored only a 20 percent satisfaction rate among early adopters, leaving four out of every five respondents unimpressed.



Apple: No Need To Panic $AAPL


One of the game traders did is sell in Apr and buy back in Sep. It seems to work quite well.