How the Coronavirus will affect Bay Area Housing Market

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@manch

Would this be higher return than your crypto endeavor?

$1M down, $20M by 12th years.

Should be doable in 5 with crypto.

20M worth of real estate in Austin = 500K a year in property tax? Also, not sure the renters and regular folks would allow such a rapid rise in RE price and thus rent. Tricky politics ahead.

Which crypto? BTC and ETH are dead

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wait for ETH 2.0 next yr to see the moon

They are not dead. Volatility can go either way. The dead assets are the ones that don’t move.

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You have two avid followers…

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@manch is an optimist, who keeps the faith about crypto. So are his “two avid followers”. I like crypto optimists, they give me hope that all is not lost for BTC and ETH.

@hanera, are you also a crypto optimist?

Speculative assets move up and down, stable assets give you predictable returns.


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There has been a sudden spike in hone prices in Silicon Valley in the past month.

The median price of homes sold in 94087 zip code is past 1 month is 2.9M. Earlier in the spring and summer the median in this zip code was 2.5-2.6M.

Check out for instance this 1700 sq ft house on a 6200 sq ft lot. Earlier in spring, such houses were selling for 2.5M, this one just sold for 2.98M - effectively 3M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/650-Oneida-Dr-94087/home/729941?1280460695=variant&600390594=copy_variant&231528114=variant&1077477207=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

And this 1800 sq ft house on 8200 sq ft lot sold for $3.2M. It would have fetched high 2Ms 6 months ago…

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/1528-Queenstown-Ct-94087/home/1024651?1280460695=variant&600390594=copy_variant&231528114=variant&1077477207=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

I think the stage is set for a blockbuster spring 2022 home selling season. Expect another 10-15% spike in SFH prices

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U talking about November? Because I could only find October numbers and the median numbers are in the 2.4-2.5 range.

Past 30 day SFH closings as per Redfin

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I can only find this link.

Added later:
OIC.

I downloaded the past 30 days from redfin and ran a median function on it in excel .

GitHub’s annual report on its user community “combined telemetry data from over four million repositories with direct survey from over 12,000 developers to identify current trends among software development companies and open-source projects,” reports InfoQ.

ZDNet notes the data shows that remote developers "aren’t planning to go back to the office.

"Before the pandemic, only 41% of developers worked at an office either full-time or part-time, but of the 12,000 surveyed in GitHub’s 2021 State of the Octoverse report, just 10.7% expect to go back to the office after the pandemic ends

Pre-pandemic, 28.1% of developers had hybrid arrangements but after the pandemic, 47.8% expect some hybrid arrangements.

Before the pandemic, 26.5% worked in places where all workers were remote. Now, 38.8% expect to be fully remote.

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Yes, if you look specifically at the houses whose sale closed between Oct 20-Nov 20, the median is $2.9M. Now I know this is not a statistically sound metric - it could be a blip of more expensive or bigger houses. But the individual houses don’t look like anomalies to me.

These are all houses that sold in the Fall, after Labor Day. So, it looks like a sharp increase in prices in the Fall, coupled with very low inventory.

We will know it was a false spike if the median price falls below this level next spring. But if the median SFH price in this (and other nearby zip codes) sustains above $3M next spring, it will have proven to be a real increase. Time will tell…

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can’t read this article due to paywall but looks relevant

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https://archive.md/xKSfc

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