I am waiting for 50% down
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50% down is not going to happen. Tech jobs are mostly spared, and this thing will get better. Just look at China. I worry if I wait too long for huge discounts I may miss out. I am happy with 5-10% discounts.
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One of my wealthy friends believes in the silver bullet that Trump likes. The malaria miracle drug. He believes that we only have another week before the whole economy collapses. The silver bullet is a Trump fantasy.
Things are going to get a lot worse.
50% Discount in “RBA”
Buy buy buy
It probably won’t happen. But I am not buying until or if and when it does. Not a hungry buyer. Same with stocks.
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We didn’t have a 50% drawdown in the depth of the financial meltdown in 08, or the tech nuclear winter after dot bomb. Why would there be a 50% drawdown now?
I would be VERY surprised if it went down 20%. Most likely just 5 to 10%. What’s the incentive for sellers to panic sell?
It was 50% in many areas. Maybe only 20% in the RBA. But there will be some steals and deals in the next 2 years.
Tech stocks will have domino sales impact which will bite their profit margin, that may likely results pre-preemptive lay offs, and drive RE drops as no buyers will be in the market. This we have seen every recession and we will be able to see the impact between Oct 2020 and Feb 2021.
This is again pure guess work, no back up data.
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I guess it all depends on how soon the economy will get back on its feet. I am still hopeful, maybe foolishly, things will be much improved in 6 months. We will have successfully flattened the curve, and more testing will allow people to go back to work and customers assured business staff are clean. The ultra low rates will add rocket fuel to a recovering economy.
Keep a close eye on the Chinese economy. They are ahead of us by two months or so. They are back to 60 to 70% capacity and I will be very interested to see their progress in the next two weeks.
Anecdotal but owner of a shampoo/conditioner factory in Guangzhou is back to full capacity. They supply lower end SE Asia market. They are probably still working through back orders from the downtime so not sure about future orders.
His family is back to eating dim sum every day. I guess things are not That bad .
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People are soooo ready to go out. I know I am. By the time this thing gets under control restaurants and bars will do unbelievable business. I may eat out every day for a whole month just to get even.
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If this is even somewhat prolonged, I’m predicting a 20–25% drop. Even if buyers have their down payment set aside, the volatility we’re seeing in the stock market scares people in a way that is not conducive to large purchases. Will I have a job in a year? Will Covid19 come back in the fall? When is the next pandemic? Should I wait for RE to drop more? Unless we have a very rapid V-shaped recovery the psychology is just different from what we’ve had for the past 9 years.
Another data point – during the financial crisis the stock market bottomed (March 09) well before the RE market (some bottomed Dec '09, bounce in '10 bc of incentives, then many bottomed in '11). So I feel the stock market leads RE in a crash and the delta may be 6–18 months. Wait until you see the whites of their eyes.
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unfortunately some already going out of business
No one knows about our future/job/business, but my guess in next 30 days COVID19 goes to memory slowly, people may start functioning normal while COVAD19 still in existence, esp in statistics.
We can compare 2008 and 2020 on the charting and on how it recovers…etc, but 2008 was created by real estate sub-prime. The price movements of real estate for 2020 (Domino impact) would be different than 2008 (Direct impact).
The impact to real estate was very high almost 40%-60% price drops happened. The median price at bay area may drop somewhere 10% to 20% like 1997 or 1975 period.
Now, COVID19 fear created business/government shut down+oil shock (like 1975) created this recession with Supply chain, tourism, entertainment, hotels, restaurants, oil industry, airlines are heavy hit at 65% to 70% price drops (Direct impact).
Real estate is domino impact, but not direct impact. We will come to know in six months down the lane.
ALL these are guess work, no back up data
Not going to be 30 days. HK/Taiwan/Singapore, once travelers come back and people relax a little bit, things came back again.
COVID19 will exists for years without proper medicine or cure, but people will forget soon. Once stock market is going up,news/media flashes differently, people forget COVID19…wait and watch…
UNLESS NEW SHOCK COMES AGAIN Which is rare !
Run on thin margin? Can’t even drag for a year?
Barber shops? Beauty care e.g. nail polishing?
I missed retail malls and retail industries like Macys, Kohls…etc suffer further more. Big malls and malls related REITs will suffer (like SPG 67%-70% YTD drop).
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