Indices & ETFs

LOL. Just social media. Nothing accurate or authentic about it.

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@manch

Nothing new to learn from that Beth guy. The green count is identical to my count and should be the count nowā€¦ Panda :panda_face: is onboard. The article is outdated and doesnā€™t account for today last half hour melt up.

Beware of the century corrective wave :imp: Beth guy is still short term outlook

So can you summarize for me? Too many arrows on your chart. Is it going to be :rocket: from now on?

I gave up. Doubt you can understand chart. My count has not change for nearly one month for short-term and have not changed for months for long term. Actually, long term, nothing has changed at all.

I can understand

:chart_with_upwards_trend:

Vs

:chart_with_downwards_trend:

Just tell me which. :innocent:

Show that you donā€™t understand trends. I have talked about many timeframes in numerous occasions in this forum. Without stating the timeframe, trends are meaninglessā€¦ this applies to stocks as well as RE. Multi-day can be down, multi-week is up, multi-month is down, multi-year is sideway, multi-decade is up, ā€¦

So what timeframes are you in? @Jil is always on multi-day to multi-week. @pastora is usually multi-day. Multi-week trend is clearly pointing UP now. The century Peak could be in Apr-Jun time frameā€¦ The century impulse peakā€¦ you can either believe it or laugh at me and Panda depending on what happen from Apr-Jun till next few years. That is, this last final up wave/ leg (recall this been mentioned ad nauseam) is for me to unload BIG TIME into uber euphoria. I believe you donā€™t have a timeframe in mind so you are confused when reading chartsā€¦ you donā€™t know what timeframe people are talking about on the chart.

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You are liquidating your entire AAPL holding?

:scream:

Crossed my mind but my wife would kill me. I have unloaded 50% of AAPLs in my IRA account only. For other accounts, would ride through the corrective waveā€¦ AAPL could thriveā€¦ recall I say some stocks would striveā€¦ AAPL could be one of those.

But if Apple will thrive, and itā€™s the biggest component of both S&P and NDX, it wonā€™t be the century top.

The two statements contradict each other.

Other stocks are decimated. AAPL is not that big to overwhelm. Remember I donā€™t know the pattern of the corrective wavesā€¦ you are assuming what I have said many times (quite tired of repeating myself so many times) not to assume, corrective wave doesnā€™t mean down down down.

The move together as a group. If apple thrives there is no reason the other FANMAG will get decimated.

May be FAANMG thrive too. May be FAANMG merely go sideways while other stocks decimates. I donā€™t know. All I know is, those who are outstanding stock pickers will be the winners. Index fund investors, best so-so return for many decades, worse very negative return.

All I say is corrective wave. I didnā€™t say is uber bear market! I choose my words carefully.

Look at the running flat pattern, imagine is multi-decade longā€¦ do you call it a bear market or a bull market?

Now I understand why you donā€™t understand Jim Cramer, his timeframes can be from multi-week to mulct-yearā€¦ he didnā€™t make it clearā€¦ is up to you to know by context. Is time for you to start thinking and reading in term of timeframes.

.

Randomly pick a chart posted months ago. Above chart is posted in Dec 20. What does it say?

Multi-month trend is UPā€¦ has not changed at all.
Multi-week trend is also UPā€¦ till iii which is 337.76 in Feb, then down till early Mar (think is Mar 8).
Multi-day trend is at the point of posting is Up, then down, sideways, up ā€¦ depending.

Implication? Say for a long only trader,
If youā€™re a position trader i.e. multi-month timeframe, your aim is to sell at 5, so any dips are BTFDs.
If youā€™re a swing trader on multi-week timeframe? Be alert, current multi-week is up but need to monitor closely when iii is to be completed.
If youā€™re a day trader/ multi-day trader? The chart is no good to you.

Do Master has some info to be so certain this is going to be a wedge. Could easily break above the wedge as follows:

@manch

After some thought, I realize EWT terms are too technical for laymen. So I use laymenā€™s language to talk (not precise but good enough),

EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) has two types of waves.
Impulse waves - A trend, can be up or down. An impulse has five internal waves.
Corrective waves - A corrective wave has three internal waves. Can be either counter-trend or trend less.

EW waves are nested i.e. within a wave can have impulse and corrective waves.

EW applies to all timeframes (EW calls them degrees), of most interest are:
Primary degree - A multi-month trend, I label them as 1 2 3 4 5
Intermediate degree - A multi-week trend, I label them as i ii iii iv v

Below is a daily chart for SPY (donā€™t want to use QQQ and SPX since have too many lines) showing the EW picture since Jan 1, 2020ā€¦ count is identical to SPX, albeit prices differā€¦ SPY = ~ 0.1 x SPX.

Observations from the chart:
Internal waves of wave 5 is five intermediate degree waves i ii iii iv v
It is in wave 5 i.e. in a multi-month up trend
It is in wave iii i.e. in a multi-week up trend

Prices should travel within the pitchfork channels (donā€™t ask why, assume is true).
Hence wave 5 is expected to be completed somewhere between early May to early Jul. Most likely Jun 4 Fri
It is likely to be completed at 439.69 (donā€™t ask why, I have a way to compute).

What happens after wave 5 completes on 6/4?

Jun 4 is my guess. Can happen as early as May 11.

If that is also completion of wave Vā€¦ CRASH. How fast how deep I have no ideaā€¦ I will close TQQQs and may or may not long puts. Other buy n hold position, probably just hold on since total amount is small compare to my TQQQ position :slight_smile: Yes, I have lots of TQQQsā€¦ go for the killā€¦ very high risk trade. I am cocksure is in multi-month up trendā€¦ albeit too eager and didnā€™t get a very good price.

However, could be a wave 1 instead i.e. relabel the waves. Recall I mention that whenever five waves is completed, I am indecisive as to which degree did the impulse has completed even though I have labeled them. Nevertheless, close TQQQs for safety.

Btw, just to jog your memory, I have corrected Pandaā€™s count long agoā€¦ his latest tweet essentially say my count is right :wink:

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I bought a decent size of FNGU and ARKK on Friday during a flush down but I think youā€™re right. While many traders are confused, some social media furus are predicting a rip toward end of April and early May, then a major correction. Iā€™ll likely go all in with FNGU, ARKK, GBTC and some beaten down chinese stocks. They all have a nice support so easy to setup a stop trigger. Another flush down will be nice but not sure if weā€™ll get it below the last support. IMO, I donā€™t think we see the nasdaq hit previous ath in April or Mayā€¦maybe not for a while.

Looks like Friday morning heavy sell off resulted by Margin call !

GS liquidated 10.5 Billion of Archegos Capital supposedly had 10.5B under management

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The bull narrative here is that tech sold off this last week because of an overleveraged home office. The bear narrative here is that this is the beginning of a series of unfortunate over leveraged events.

Which camp are you in?

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