Indices & ETFs

I do not know about AAPL or any other stocks as I do not follow them. I use 525 stocks for daily statistics purpose only. Even though I can spot changes, it is not so reliable like index funds.

Reg market 3100: All I know is this: During 2018, 2020 the market hit its bottom very quickly (based on my algorithm). But in 2021 to now, market did not complete rock bottom but holding on and moving sideways. With this, all I can say, market cannot go to ATH in near future, but potentially it has to touch bottom and then go up. Made a simulation, the bottom ranges between 2800 and 3200.

When this happens, big investors started selling their profitable ones to move to cash mode so that they can buy later. In this process all stocks get affected.

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Just sharing from reddit. This person is exactly right on conclusion

Go with self fulfilling prophecy or be contrarian?

Just contrarian is worst as we may end losing money. I was trying to time it lay man mindset, many times failed.

I do not understand what you have mentioned here (not that high level), but market is cheating, and it is not right.

I do not know how reliable, but this is consensus futures given by factset, published by fidelity


Dec 0.5% almost confirmed.

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Given the data right now I think soft landing is more likely than hard landing. Inflation is already softening, Fed is signaling it knows the risks of over tightening, and US consumers have proven more resilient than many expected. Maybe the outlook will darken as more data comes in. But at this point in time I think a soft landing is the most likely scenario. Recession, yes. But a pretty mild one.


Why retailers need to do their own research and can not depend on analysts prediction (Jan 6th, 2022 prediction).

source: 2022 S&P 500 Predictions | Blue Bell Private Wealth Management

Data from past recessions. Stock market always bottomed before the real economy did, because it looked ahead.

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Unfortunately, I do not give any bullish news now.

I checked again and again, this current market (S&P and Nasdaq) must go down touch a low and then only going up bull run.

If I guess, we may be half way through and no Santa run now !

If this run is final run for bottom, it must be severe or sharp dip !!

IMO, it is not over yet.

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Yeah, but who’s skilled enough to hit the 10 best and miss the 10 worst? Sometimes they happen very close together in periods of extreme volatility. I just try to avoid choppy periods then bet aggressively when there’s clear direction. Periods like the current one just eat up capital.

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True, you summarized everything here.

With 5 years of programming, I am having challenges every time, unable to automate and unable to have 95% reliable system. Extremely difficult task for normal human eyes.

If you are using short term options, they are killers when VIX is rarely spiking! Either you need to use leveraged ETFs or ITM long term (even this may eat capital) or go for non-leveraged ETFs.

With all these, it is difficult as market changes directions then and there.

If we know directions, safer bet is non-leveraged negative ETFs like PSQ, if confident SQQQ, if higher confidence then ITM long term put (where we can see 25% in single day drop like today).

Then there’s taxes. Every time you sell you give up 20% of your accumulate gains to your uncle Sam plus whatever your state charges you. You need exceptional timing skill to overcome that.


There is no question of timing skill required for trading without which there is no success.

A lot of skill. The step-up in cost basis is the key to generational wealth.

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Above 200-day SMA :+1: Good but didn’t invalidate Mauro’s count.
Invalidation when SPY > 412; In general, we use 3% above i.e. 1.03 * 401.97 = 414 :wink:
Most importantly, we want to see a successful retest (as a support) of the 200-day SMA.

Also didn’t go above the downward sloping line…

The assumption is he did that correctly. Sure no omission of significant issues or correctly interpreting what is a pivot?