Indices & ETFs

Chart interpretation is like modern art. See what you want to see :blush:

a

Yes, need to verify that each pivot in above chart mean the same thing.

Tom Lee sees a ‘tremendous chase’ into year-end, calling for a 10% rally or more

I like Knox’s view.

SPX 4120 is about the same as Mauro’s SPY 412 to invalidate the bear count.

Get ready to :man_dancing:

“Meaningful” low? Still not meaningful yet?

Currently market is testing its peak again and again yesterday and today. If tomorrow is also positive day (may be very likely chances), that is going to be another peak as market starts dipping from Monday onwards.

As usual, nothing guaranteed.

This is key, must not break below 3875.

Hmmm, I do not know, at this stage, whether it will touch 3875 or go down below that. It can max go down 3 days (72 hours) from peak.

How do you come up with 3875?

According to Knox. Refer to chart.

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Hmmm, but going to 4400 is too high, but never know.

Hourly chart

Mauro is as bearish as @Jil but won’t short now. He is a cautious trader.

Daily chart.

What is he thinking?
Convincing himself?
Crying in pain because he is short?

Technically, we can’t tell whether it would break up or break down. The safe way is to stay out and wait for confirmation (go up or down) before taking a (long or short) position.

Rent is too high of percentage and has too much lag for that to happen. It’d be nice, but I think it’s a very low probability.

YoY will be lower – just due to the fact that last year in December we had a huge jump month to month.

IMO, This is wrongly interpreted,This is fundamental change reduces revenue and income.

Inflation reduced is a result of products and services available at cheaper cost than last year.

This results revenue reduction, naturally income reduced keeping profit margin same.

Stock price needs to go down.

BTW: On any case, stock sunami must start from tomorrow until next FED meeting in Jan ( some guess and some inference, but nothing guaranteed).

Higher prices are factor in labor and material inputs. Higher end user prices are a factor in demand. Also, our economy is highly leveraged. Interest rates in and of themselves are a significant cost factor.

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The leverage factor is huge. This country runs on debt.

You’re thinking too short-term. Inflation decreasing means there fed can stop raising rates soon. That’s bullish for the economy.

Yes, I am talking about next one year,2023 appx, but not long.

It is already planned for stop in next two meetings if tomorrow rate hike is 0.5%. Then effectively 0.5% balance to be decided.

Even if FED stops that 0.5% future rates, they are convinced inflation is going to be around 2% range.

This means entire product range & services prices are (will be) dropped shortly. Defintely, it will hit the revenue & income in next 3-4 quarters.

Assuming market prices are reflecting current level, the future market pricing must be less than current.

Market is starting to price in the rate hikes stopping sooner. We might be done after 0.5% in December.