Indices & ETFs

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Tom Lee has been wrong for several years. This year, he would be correct :pray:

If this comment is just to counter manch, ignore this.

This year top is nearing around SPX 4300 (possible to touch)-4400 (max).

  1. What market so far corrected is impact of rate hikes limited to reduction in market value.

  2. What market has not corrected is domino impact (after effect) of current lay offs going on. Until Yield curve is inverted, this bull run continues, but when it normalizes (or when FED increases another rate hike in May 2023), bull run ends.

The drop cycle started in Nov 2021 has not completed yet, that ends with recession and possibly a circuit breaker too.

He cannot be right this year too.

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For example, recently my friend last his contract, and posted for new opportunities, no one has called last 15 days, not even any calls from across US cities.

He has been in consulting field for more than 15 years, and he was telling me that he is forced to be out of job after 10 years of continuous employment.

In fact, FED action resulting the job demand reduction which is working. If FED increases further rate hike, market won’t withstand the pressure as overall S&P revenue/income/growth will be reduced.

S&P is negative 2022 and will be flat in 2023 & 2024 (or some negative). Assume 2025 & 2026 growth compensates 2022-2024 losses, S&P is net zero between 2022-2026.

Knowing this ahead, 10 year note is attractive for funds even at 3.5% rate and that resulted yield curve inversion.

When stocks are corrected due to deep recession, market sells bonds and move the money to stocks as they get once in a decade thanksgiving sale of stocks. This makes 10 year note yield increases and normalizes.

[Edit]

I wrote before seeing this post.

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CG thinks bull market because of Fed has started injected liquidity into the market.

Bitcoin, eth and TSLA are good proxies for risk appetite. If these go up, growth stocks would be up :slight_smile:
Based on social media, I conclude that bulk of younger millennials and gen z investors are into these stocks/ crypto. Almost all millennials swear by growth stocks vs baby boomers preference for index funds… could just be age… too old to mess around.

Social media is full of bears predicting the impending crash of S&P to 2800-3300.

Echo chamber or coincidental independent thought?

All these people are stupidly wealthy from predicting 2008, right?

My prediction is based on my own algorithmic forecast and is independent.
BTW: I do not have Twitter account, no facebook account and no other social media except news websites and reddit. Even in reddit, I do not read those predictions (waste of time).

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Since Nov 2021, actively managed funds and stock gurus underperform :face_with_hand_over_mouth: S&P index.

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Cash has been trash for 40 years.
Index investing has outperformed most active managers since forever.
Folk who figured that out when they were young ended up with nice nest eggs.

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Faceripper…


Weekly chart is bullishly biased.

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If they used market rent instead of their measure with lag, then inflation would be 2.6%.

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I’m with Faceripper. Inflation is on the way down and the labor market is in the process of normalizing. October was the bottom of the bear market.

Now, market future is not about inflation, but focus on SPX year over year revenue growth and income growth, esp on tech and manufacturing industries (not banking sector).

If you review refinitive estimates, you will see many sectors year over year revenue growth is negative and income growth is negative.

This is like if you own 1000 rental homes complex and the rent is going down YOY 5% or 10%, your apartment complex won’t sell at the price it was estimated last year.

With 2 million lay off (present and future) going on and additional 2M next year, demand will be killed in all sectors.

This is what happened in all previous recessions, esp year 2000 and 2008, blow up some sectors and market went in A-B-C Elliot wave downturn.

At present, Market is in high DCB place, esp on chip sectors and tech sectors.

Starting from Monday, Count down 15 market days and SPX will reach a maximum (not beyond 4400) and then go to descending mode and will not touch 4400 for next 45 days (it may be for year 2023 but I can not estimate more than 45 days).

Unless Miracle happens, market won’t be in bull run further.

Standard caveat: This is written for disucssion purpose, do not trade anything based on these statements as Future is always unpredictable and is not guaranteed.

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Roaring 20s. Remember the 1918 flu set the stage for the last time.
People are sick and tired of being sick and tired. Gen Z doesn’t give a shit about Powell and the stock market or charts and trends. They want to live life and spend money… this recession is just in the minds of old farts. BTW Powell is my age

May be only for investor class only. Older folks (with minimum investment) decide that their days are numbered, better spend their savings and enjoy themselves before they can’t (some already can’t).

Yes. They realize “save to invest” for an uncertain future where you might not be able to enjoy your wealth is risky.

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Blogger: Count invalid above 418.39

IMHO, in general overlapping waves of wave (A) are corrective. Blogger counts as an impulse… may be he/she has a good reason.

Tomorrow, market is positive with TSLA results, I see it is going in bull mode as it is closing slight negative today.

All are guesses/inferences, and anything can go wrong 100% - future is always unpredictable.