Indices & ETFs

My original comment was that not many businesses are worrying (yet) about Democrats taking the White House. And you gave me an example of options market movement, and how one person interprets what it means. You don’t see the two are totally unrelated?

Do you understand how option pricing works?

…as the Dow Jones and other major indexes consolidate near highs, Apple stock, AMD stock, Google stock, Microsoft stock and Target stock look like leaders.

Where is FB? Target is a leader replacing AMZN!

After calming down, did a count. UPRO seems to have some steam left so long 50-day SMA is not breached. Next week is probably sideways, hopefully, for me to accumulate :slight_smile: more UPROs. In the heat of things, didn’t purchase many nor add today.

Good :slight_smile: and LOL :rofl:

In this thread, above was posted in Dec 2019. Actual outcome,

Peak at 308, off +18 (290)
Bottom at 199, off -11 (210)

Didn’t monitor VOO closely then, was focused on monitoring individual stocks. From now on, need to monitor indices closely.

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While index fund is the best instrument for lifetime investment, you can get zero return for a decade if you happen to buy at the peak of a Cycle degree impulse e.g. 1967 (approx) and 1999 (approx). Hence, is best to invest in index fund using the DCA approach.

I have no idea whether the impulse to be completed is wave 1 or wave (I).V.5. Given current macro environment, I wager on wave 1. For wave 1, worse case scenario is decline to 2000 while (I).V means below 1000. Ofc, worse case is not the most likely case, my broken crystal ball says should be around 3000.

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Neither do I have ! It is too hard to know way ahead. Staying away from market.

Nasdaq daily and weekly charts. Nasdaq closes below the 21-day EMA but bounces off the 50-day/10-week line.

S&P corrected 7.31% and Nasdaq went down 10.79% as of date.

We can fairly expect a pull back tomorrow and then normal down period goes until market decides where to stop.

BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.

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These stocks were halted today (either up or down) by circuit breaker

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MS said that because the re-bounce could de-rail their forecasted 20% correction to their clients. So they try to psycho the public with their statements to accept a 20% correction.

Looking at the chart below. 20% correction is possible. So is the “beginning of the end of selloff”. In fact, both sound like saying the same thing :slight_smile:

I do not have doubt about the 20% correction which you have already predicted 23.6% - FIB level.

But, MS has told this just 2 hours before the market close, that too after 13.5% correction in place. They are openly scaring public to sell off so that they can “Buy to cover their shorts” tomorrow !

You wait and see “Market goes up crazy Tomorrow…”

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Reversal day. If tomorrow confirmed it, is a new multi month bull run with a new ATH. So @Jil think is a bull trap?

“I think the reversal today … was your key to start doing some buying, not some selling. … The uncertainties, the disarray, the mayhem—it’s not going to go away.”

I was one step ahead on Friday

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IMO, If it is so called kangaroo Jump, above 4%, reversal is permanent.

If reversal is just 0.5%-1.5%, it is not permanent but a trap.

But I do not think market is ready for kangaroo jump now ! Let us wait and see!!!

Hold your breath for 2mrw.

Tomorrow, very likely stay positive as MM wants all others to forget the last week drop and will create a nice FOMO so that they can kick later !

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I am expecting around $275 :wink: Could be as high as $282 if there are good macro news.

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