Mass Exodus From Cali

82

Condos in NYC have $2500 HOA fees. Makes more sense to have a rent controlled apartment.

83

Even if you can afford the fees - who wants the rules?

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84

…Not!!!

https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2023/10/02/leaving-moving-out-of-california-data-chart-report

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85

Won’t deter out-of-state people repeating the doom loop talking points though.

:man_shrugging:

86

Strong bias clouds the facts. It would be great if people could criticize while sticking with facts without bias.

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87

Facts :slight_smile:

Texas is the stickiest state in the country by far, with approximately 82 percent of native Texans still living here in 2021. Other sticky states include North Carolina (75.5 percent), Georgia (74.2 percent), California (73.0 percent) and Utah (72.9 percent).

88
  1. The question to ask is where was California 10-20 years back and where is CA today? i.e. the trend. Snapshot is misleading.
  2. Alabama is 71.6%, vs CA 73% so how is stickiness valuable as a metric even if we consider a snapshot ok?(I don’t think it’s ok though)

Using stats to paint a misleading picture is an art… :slightly_smiling_face:

Have a nice weekend!!

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89

Now here’s some ranking to show from where people are moving from and where people are moving to. This uses USPS moving data.

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90

Speaking of misusing statistics, it would be more helpful if those migration numbers are in terms of percentages like the stickiness number. Texas is usually cited as a migration magnet. With a 12k net migration out of 30M population? Doesn’t sound that impressive does it?

CA’s Number 1 problem is its high housing costs because of its insane NIMBYism. That’s the most cited reason why people want to leave. But YIMBYs now have a upper hand in CA politics and we are turning things around. Keep the momentum going and CA has a bright future.

91

Forecast from CA’s finance department.

California population projected to stagnate through 2060, down from 13.5M growth prediction → https://www.ocregister.com/2023/07/2…-through-2060/

California population projected to stagnate through 2060, down from 13.5M growth prediction
The state forecast comes on the heels of three years of unprecedented population declines totaling about 1%

After adding residents for nearly its entire history, California can expect its population to remain roughly the same through 2060, new projections show, in a trend that would upend previous predictions and threaten the Golden State’s status as an economic powerhouse.

The forecast from the state’s finance department comes on the heels of three years of unprecedented population declines totaling about 1%, as residents fed up with high housing costs and other quality-of-life concerns fled California in droves.

92

Population growth is pretty much the same as housing growth. Just keep building and we will fill every unit we build.

I won’t put too much stock in any forecast beyond a 10 years horizon. Nobody in 2018 predicted Covid and the WFH trend that saw mass migration from cities to suburbs. Similarly nobody can predict today how much remote will get unwinded and whether and how much those people will move from suburb back to the cities.

93

Yeah, the data on how much income and taxes California has lost by people leaving is totally biased stuff. The pivot point used to be that it was ok, because only low income people left. Now it’s high income people leaving. The pivot point is that’s ok, because California creates high income people so fast it doesn’t matter. California went from record budget surplus projections to a massive budget deficit how fast? :man_shrugging:

94

CA is “learning” and will continue to “learn” from punishment by markets. If the state doesn’t change it will become a “has been” and there are many hungry competitors who are ready to take over its place and past glory.

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95

This makes it sound like people and businesses succeed purely due to government policies.

I always wonder how come people just accept as a fact of life that no place will challenge NYC as the finance capital of the world, but keep thinking Silicon Valley can be easily replaced by some 3rd rate cities like Austin and Miami. SV seems always on the verge of failure because CA governments suck so bad. Where does this belief come from?

96

Haven’t you lived in CA long enough to realize how quickly it went so far left? It didn’t used to have so many homeless and so much property crime. Democrats used to be against illegal immigration. If you don’t notice the change, then you’re the frog in the water that’s slowly cooking.

97

And do the homelessness and petty property crimes have any impact on the business position of Silicon Valley? Did Apple move its HQ out of CA because of these issues? Did VC funding drop due to these?

What I am saying is that there is way more to business environment than government policies. You guys should know this. Aren’t you the free market types who said the most terrifying words in the world are “I am from the government and I am here to help”?

And we are already fighting back on these issues because voters demand change.

98

Yeah, I’m sure there’s zero relation between that and SF having the highest office vacancy rates, biggest drop in downtown cell phone traffic, and high income people leaving. That’s all fake news though. SF is great per a few random Twitter posts and pics. The data is wrong.

99

You sure SF’s empty offices are due to hobos and petty thefts? Nothing to do with people working remote and having no need for office space?

While we are at it, number one reason why SF downtown is dead must be because of all those illegal immigrants coming thru the Texas border.

100

I guess you don’t see any connection between it all. People have more freedom to choose anywhere to live. They are increasingly choosing to leave SF. That can’t be bullish. If SF was so great, they’d stay whether they have to go into the office or not.

You realize CA shares a border too, and SF has sanctuary city polices. They won’t even cooperate with federal authorities on immigration. I thought it was going to be a flashpoint when the illegal immigrant shot and killed that young female. It wasn’t.

101

Why did remote workers move out of SF? How about the difference in house prices? People can sell their SF house and buy something 3x as large in Sac. Or they can finally buy a house at all. By the way most people who left SF did not leave CA. They just moved to a suburb in Bay Area or Sac.

All these issues that the right wing obsesses about, I won’t say they are trivial issues, but they are not critical issues that common sense people worry day to day. Lack of housing and the high housing price that results is far more important.

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