Yeah Mountain House has literally crumbled. I won’t be surprised if prices there drop by 50% from peak by end of year to get to the pre pandemic levels.
It’s already 25% down from peak.
Dublin, San Ramon are the next to drop up to 50%.
South Bay didn’t appreciate that much so won’t drop that much either.
50% seems too much of a drop for areas with good schools like Dublin and San Ramon. Even after the housing bubble prices there didn’t fall that much.
During GFC, price declines from ATH.
Fortress: -15%
Suburbs: -30%
Exurbs: -50%
True but San Ramon and Dublin prices went up by more than 2x in pandemic and schools were good there even before pandemic.
My price drop theory of an area is simply based on the appreciation during pandemic without any real driver. Austin for example had a real driver with many companies moving there. Dublin and San Ramon and Mountain House have no real driver except remote work which will be undone soon.
https://www.redfin.com/city/33871/CA/Mountain-House/housing-market
We’ll see what July data is. June was still up 2.4% yr/yr. Price reductions don’t mean what most people infer from them. A 20% price reduction on listings doesn’t mean prices have dropped 20%.
Perhaps but keep in mind that peak in these 3rd tier towns occurred in April and was significantly higher than prices at the start of the year.
So those who bought at peak will lick their wound for long time.
I know many folks who bought in March April at outrageous prices and equal homes are now listed at at least 25% lower prices and still not selling.
My gut feeling is they will fall by another 25% easily given the rapid rise in inventory.
How do you plan to profit from it?
No idea. It’s not stock that I can short. Do you have any ideas?
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Just wait to buy next SFH investment at the bottom 
Consensus is Dec/Jan.
Buying now is equivalent to catching the falling knife. You can do that if you are sure house prices would do a V shape recovery… declining mortgage rate, increasing rents, increasing cost of labor,… countering this would be declining cost of materials, dumping by iBuyers, scary talks by Fed,
Bear in mind, secular trend is UP because of formation of millennial families + lengthening of lifespan.
We’ll have to see.
I have a relative in NY who took up a job with Amzn and his team is in Seattle and there is no expectation that he needs to move for his job.
Are we really supposed to trust your bubble theory then? There are tons of ways to profit. Opendoor is publicly traded. Redfin, Zillow, and Remax are publicly traded. There are mortgage and title companies that are publicly traded. There’s an ETF for mortgage-backed securities.
You can not short real estate ! You are left with shorting REITs only !
Are lifespans really increasing significantly?
Nope, life expectancy has plateaued. If anything it will decline going forward due to the highest obesity rate ever in US history, plus drug abuse and growing mental disorder. Immigration of skilled people has also been declining and had practically stalled due to Covid.
Increasing.
Project to increase “significantly” soon…
If significantly, prices would be sky-high! Would be if…
Impact? Inflation Inflation >> increase in house prices.
UN projection is global and subject to all sorts of variables. Increase in the US has stalled. 0.08% is effectively nothing.
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The chart is for USA.
Last few years. Project to increase significantly later. Investment is about the future, not about the past.
Very few men make it past 80. Time to live life to its fullest. I now have the life expectancy of a golden retriever. The future gets grimmer as you get older.
I have a lot of friends turning 80 this year. Many more have died
In the last two years not getting there. Last year my 66year old buddy was skiing, felt dizzy, went to the doctor diagnosed with inoperable brain cancer and was dead in four months. Cancer seems to be the number one killer. These guys were all active and otherwise healthy. Most boomers will be dead in 20 years. But Gen y and z have twice that many people.
No recession in Menlo Park. . BTW I built my first spec house In Menlo in 1989. Sold for $950k. Now worth $6m.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1340-Arbor-Rd-Menlo-Park-CA-94025/181514148_zpid/
You mean $26M? Wow, you built that?
Mine is worth $6m. The one I posted is not my project. Probably not worth $26m. But there are still buyers in that price range
