IMO, These two really matters, rest are speculative UPs and Downs.
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Fed will raise rates by 50 or 75 bp in Sept. Not much difference either way.
And Nov 8 election will be a clean sweep for GOP and Joe Biden will become a lame duck.
So the above two outcomes would be bullish or bearish for RE prices?
How do you know for sure?
- Polls
- Trump base is fired up after Mar a Lago
- Record high inflation
- Gas prices will rise again soon, thanks to Russia and OPEC’s hatred for Biden and his green policy.
- Recession
The list is endless …
Biden’s approval rating is worse than Trump’s was at this point. The only positive anyone can say about him is that at least he isn’t Trump. Harris and Newsom are meeting with donors to align support for 2024. They should take a hint that the rest of the country doesn’t want to be California. His own party doesn’t want him to seek re-election. It’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so bad for our country.
Well House yes. Not Senate.
Reasonable points. We will find out what the public thinks.
I was talking about midterms. 2024 is too far away at this time…
I think it would interesting to see Darth Vader’s daughter run against Newsom in 2024.
I see many sellers now listing at 25-30% above Zillow estimates. Perhaps they are in denial or trying their luck.
If all sellers start doing this and refuse to drop prices hopes of prices declines in Bay Area will vanish quickly.
Here are such sellers:
I think the super highend trophy homes are in for a big correction. They could actually drop 50% and nobody would care except for the very few sellers that bought in the last two years. That PA house sold for $7.6m in 2015. Who knows what it’s worth now?
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Data shows quite the opposite. Bad homes are seeing price drops. Trophy homes are flying off the shelves and still seeing overbidding, in Bay Area.
I used to build highend spec homes. Seems way to risky now. This house looks like it was built for my generation. Do rich techies want grandpa’s house? One block from the train tracks and future high speed rail?
Yes, in Old Palo Alto.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1995-Waverley-St-Palo-Alto-CA-94301/19496624_zpid/
Did you compute gross rental yield (rent/price)? With high mortgage rate, can you still get positive cash flow for a downpayment of 20%? Moons ago, investing in BA is for appreciation, now that appreciation is in doubt, why are you still investing in BA? Negative cashflow, declining home price, why invest?
In Austin, I did some computation. Parking in cash looks more attractive. Stock market 
Property market Crypto Oil 
WB loves oil 
in the EV era. Climate change? Who cares.
Ha ha ha, found it, looks to me REinv reincarnation of buyinghouse !
Good luck !
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Being a UCB grad. I always thought that Palo Alro was th most overrated city on the planet. The dorky Harvard drop out should have bought in Atherton instead. It’s not like Zuckerberg would or could walk to Starbucks.
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The party of the president usually loses midterms. It’s going to be even worse with his dismal approval rating.
Many reasons:
- I live in Bay Area and have no plans to move out for another 10 years.
- Bay Area historically has done very well, for last 50 years. Austin not so much. So it has a track record on its side. Its like if I have to choose between investing with Warren Buffet vs Cathie Woods, I will pick WB in my sleep. CW types come and go every few years.
- Bay Area has very strong fundamentals. Weather, Diversity, Outdoor options, Accessibility, Education, VCs, Citizens, Immigration hub, Innovation hub.
- Bay Area has strict construction code and not much room to expand which is great for RE.
- I you are smart, you can cash flow and make money in Bay Area in RE. I invest in large multi family properties. The ones I bought in 2014 etc. are of course very profitable but even the ones I bought in 2020 are great. I bought around 20M worth of properties in 2020; I put 30% down and 2-2.5% mortgage. I put in another 2.5M on extensive renovations. Total rents when I bought was about 90K per month. Now the rents are sitting at 145K per month, almost 45% of it is pure profit (tax free). Based on my analysis the value of the 22.5M properties are now easily 30-35M, so I can do cash out refinance when rates come back down. So both solid cash flow and solid appreciation, if you are smart.
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Yes true. But there is only one Palo Alto and it is practically impossible to build anything in Old Palo Alto and Crescent Park. The house a block from me in OPA sold for 28M.
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Read a headline today where White House just wants to make sure that the student loan forgiveness does not increase inflation before the midterms. Clearly they’re worried.
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