I am seeing the same… open house traffic up
What explains?
My speculation - everyone is sitting on nice 3% interest rate and is not compelled to sell. Just like banks sitting on these profitable bonds that would be profitable if held-to-maturity. But, their depositors are forcing them to sell the bonds at current lower valuation. There is no such forcing factor for houses.
Well…a 3% bond isn’t profitable if inflation and interest rates are above 3% while it matures. You just have a loss in real terms instead of a loss in nominal terms if you sold before maturity.
FOMO due to low inventory.
Layoffs and rising costs and falling rents will be the forcing factor. It’s coming.
If it does it cannot be too far in the future because with high inflation money will be debased quite a bit in next few years and everything will rise naturally.
Now we can finally see the end game and where all of this is heading. Liberals are going to use climate risk as a justification to implement modern-day redlining. I swear liberals are the most racist people in this country. They are sneaky about it and pretend to be helping minorities while completely screwing over their communities.
Oh, I’m sure someone will point out how decriminalization and reduced sentencing are good for minority communities. Think about it deeper though and if it’s actually good for those communities. Is a higher crime rate and less safety for the non-criminals good for the community? Does having a higher crime rate lead to greater or fewer economic opportunities in the community? They’re literally screwing over the community in the name of protecting the criminals.
Housing Recession [ Could ] Be Over ! Never believe such blogs.
So far, market adjusted the rate hike effects only, market has not seen Domino impact of layoffs, and other cost cutting effects of businesses.
Until Yield curve inversion becomes normal and S&P touches recessionary bottom, wait, watch and analyze is the best way!
From now onwards, stocks are going to be bullish as usual seasonal.
Next 3-6 months, real estate in bay area will fly again, wait and watch, until stock started to break again!
[edit] change in statement, based on hanera’s indication that we are in blull run 5 months about to be over.
Watch yield curve, this is suppose to change to normalization, i.e., 10 year rate must be greater than 3 months rate.
10 year yield will peak (resulting slow real estate financing) that makes real estate possible down trend by this Dec 2023 (as we are in Apr now).
When yield curve normalizes, we will be in deep stock market correction. At that time, We will have nice deals for cash payers. Guessing Dec 2023…let us see.
BTW: Future is unpredictable and all guesses may go wrong.
CU: Decline 20%, gain 3% from bottom, media is so excited?
Worse than 2008?
Is anyone surprised given office vacancy rates? Plus, offices have to be refinance every 5-10 years, and rates are much higher now. That’s a recipe for disaster in CRE. As property owners go bankrupt, inventory will increase driving down prices.
Thoughts?
Can’t follow this style of presentation 
SF and Seattle are sand states? Also, their claim that the bubble is twice as big because prices are twice as high is just bad math.
Seattle and SF aren’t “Sand State” markets of course, rather “Canaries” in the housing coal mine… Case Schiller has it’s faults as a really loooong backwards look at the market, but it’s media friendly and thus widely broadcast as a solid indicator to look at when considering a home purchase.
Yes, it may be bad math, but it’s consumer level info - written in crayon, not calligraphy - to introduce a concept. It’s also something that gets circulated around lenders and realtors offices - no matter if the info is true or not true. It’s helpful to get a non-industry (assumed…) perspective on these kinds of messages. Thanks!
Spring will be the true test with the yr/yr numbers. The market always declines in the fall/winter months.
Anyone looking for lower RE prices is in dreamland.
My friend in Woodside is being charged $2m to build an 1800sf ADU. Not including land. Lots of grading and landscaping included. But still prices going out sight.
That PPSF for an ADU is bonkers. $2m could buy 3 $600k+/- SFR’s in Sacramento and cash flow perfectly. Hard to see how an ADU would give back enough ROI or cash flow to justify production, but there must be something in their calculations that says it will.