Rates aren’t going down till 2025, perhaps even further, we are in a long term secular inflationary cycle. We will see if the bubble can withstand till then. I doubt it. CRE and MFH are already crashing, SFH can’t hold the pressure for too long. One must be brave to buy SFH right now.
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I bought one 
after 1.5 years of hiatus.
Not sure how much decline you are expecting. It has already dropped a lot from peak 2022 and has inched up slightly since early this year.
I think another 25-30%. 3 years of 7+% mortgage will do it. Nothing can withstand that pressure.
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When used SFH is more expensive than brand new ones it’s just a matter of time.
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Coming to an end or have ended in mid 2022?
Social media is full of people of similar opinions and that housing prices would go back to historical norms. For SV, would be 6-8%. For Austin, would be 2-4%. IMHO, there is a structural change because of WFH/ RTO/ Hybrid movement, we have yet to know the new “historical” norm.
Before it can go back to historical norms it has to first reset to a reasonable base. And that would imply 30% fall in prices. If reset doesn’t happen prices will go sideways for next decade. I bet reset will happen under the pressure of 7% mortgage x 3 years.
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Apparently is nationwide…
Dr Doom is back
Of course New Haven, Yale, prices have always been in the toilet
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About 80% of mortgage holders reported having a rate of less than 5%, and about 90% have a rate of less than 6%, Zillow said. Almost a third reported a rate of less than 3%.
Mortgage rates are now 7.25% and rising. Bond yields are also rising, and there is no reason they will not continue with inflation on track to accelerate again.
10 yr yield will rise to somewhere between 5 and 6 % by end of year. Big hedge funds are already shortly long term bonds and betting of their yields to cross short term yields which is at 5.5%.
Once we get there, 30 year mortgage rates will cross 8% for sure. We will see how long the dam can hold that kind of pressure. I suspect a mega crash at that pressure point, like Oceangate. And this time Fed cannot do anything to backstop it.
You’ve been wrong for how long now? Inflation is going to accelerate again? Lol. Your brain still can’t comprehend that the pricing fundamentals only matter for the tiny percent of homes that are sold each year. People with sub 5% mortgages aren’t going to sell which is going to keep inventory suppressed. Suppressed inventory means there only needs to be a tiny number of buys to sustain current prices. Not every person needs to be able to afford their home at current prices and interest rates. If you can’t comprehend that, then I think everything you say is complete BS.
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The bigger issue is that all that 3% paper the banks wrote these last few years is getting more and more worthless by the hour. The Fed ruled that for purposes of calculating reserves banks can pretend that the paper is worth what is was when they wrote it. “Extend and pretend” always goes on longer than anyone thinks it can but at some point there has to be a reckoning. Just like the subprime mess.
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CRE is already crashing baby. New homes are also down by 10-20% plus another 20% price cut due to builders financing at 2% below market rate. Used homes gotta follow. Patience. Housing crash 1.0 took 6 years to play out.
Currently, other than those DDD are selling, many landlords (in Austin) are selling too. Even with lock-in low mortgage rate, rent is not able to compensate for the increase in property tax and cost of maintenance & repairs (high cost of labor and materials).
Ofc, builders of new construction are having a field day… offering low mortgage rate + pay for closing cost… still make tons of money.
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Weird. Home builder stocks are at all-time highs. It’s funny how reality never matches your silly rantings.
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Additional color. Property tax is capped for Homestead in Austin. However, for rental, property tax is not capped (unlike CA, property tax for rental is also capped… weird), so is pretty hefty because of the rapid rise of property prices… yet, rent that you can get is dependable on the affordability of the renters which is fairly limited.
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It already is. Energy accelerating again. Wages accelerating again. Writing is on the wall even for people with peanut size brain. If Fed is serious about bringing inflation to 2% they have to raise more and long term yields have to rise more and we will see 8+% mortgage rates in no time. If Fed is lying then it’s a different story. Either way economy is screwed, while asset holders like me and others here are enjoying rising rents and rising interest on dry powder.