“ But it also turns out thatstudent loan debt isn’t the top source of debt for Americans aged 23 to 38; it’s credit card debt.”
Wow. Student loan debt gets all of the blame though.
Seriously? That’s a waste of Cornell researchers to study the obvious.
Is recession that scary? Shouldn’t it be a necessary process to clear previous excesses?
Low unemployment recession should be 
TikTokers should be very happy since they can buy stocks and broad market index cheap
Might even be able to buy their first house cheap.
TikTokers should be 
BTW: Please avoid my personal side. If anyone does, I will permanently ignore that person’s post (no response).
Be ready to face a recession from here now as Yield curve at the verge of inversion. This is shared for information purpose, not to scare any one.
This is happening as 10 year yield is dropping heavily below 3-M yield. Inference: market is buying more and more 10-year note (high demand results lower yield) for security expecting uncertainty.
This is exactly the AIM of FED when aggressively pushing rates.
@Jil Thanks for the posting.
Looking at the actual rates for 10 yr vs 3 months, it looks like:
Not sure if the conclusion is same though
It does not matter how it is, but inversion is a precursor (3-6 months) of recession.
I still see 10Y came down from 3.48 (Jun 13,2022 ) to 2.5 now as given below.
It is not like that, 1M, 2M, 3M are more influenced by FED rate ( as this is lowest anyone can borrow ) than 10Y, 20Y or 30Y.
We’re in recession for six months already. Another recession after a brief boom? Or recession is prolonged and severe? Or high unemployment which is usually associated with recession would happen in a few months?
What is a recession? I view it as consecutive two quarter of negative GDP, so is nation measurement. Many things happen in a recession, the academic question is do those things define a recession? Or those things might or might not happen, but usually happen together with recession.
It does not matter when and where it started. If history is correct and if it repeats, the zero day starts now when yield curve inverted. Here is the nice discussion, I share from reddit.
Most of us are fearful of recession because of the possibility of losing our job. If that is not the case, who care whether we’re in recession or recession about to start.
Investors are fearful of recession only because the stock prices would usually decline a lot, if that is not the case, who care whether we’re in recession or recession about to start.
My implicit question was are you saying there would be high unemployment and stock prices would continue to tumble?
When businesses (small scale, medium and large) are stressed with rate hike, they will reduce expenses to maintain profit or avoiding bankruptcy. It is part of economy. The DOMINO effect is the one which we do not know how deep is.
Regarding stocks prices, it is unpredictable as usual. Big Funds/Banks may have good analysts to forecast the future and they take lead in bearish and bullish drive.
IMHO, we retailer are poor to follow them.
This is just 2020 when Yield curve inverted and when stocks reacted, we never know when and how they do.
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Guess reduce expenses include laying off employees. From what I read so far, those employees find another job easily 
There are more jobs than people willing to work 
Caveat, I am not in the job market 
so I don’t know the true picture.
When everyone lays off (demand will be reduced) where the jobs will be? It is like 2008 when millions of home on sale, no buyers for six months.
Thanks @Jil. Wonder another possibility is that whenever rate hike happens it just takes time for 10 yr to catch-up.
There’s still 1.8 jobs per unemployed worker.
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Fed wants to induce a recession to make it 1 job per unemployed worker.
That 1.8 number in perspective:
It has been way above pre-Covid level since mid 2021, and is still comfortably higher. We need this number to cool down a bit for the Fed to turn less hawkish. It is a good development.
Job openings. It’s still way, way higher than pre-Covid trend.
Is USA the only nation that think too many jobs are bad?
Can’t help to think why not get more immigrants and outsource the jobs overseas?
Ofc, long term is to increase productivity.
It’s bad when it causes inflation. We probably should increase immigration of people who have the right skills to fill the jobs.
I am waiting for the recession results. So far there is a shortage of labor. Prices going up. Can’t find trades people. Can’t even get timely service at restaurant. Shortages of everything. Stagflation coming?
It is mostly driven by market, which has big funds/banks etc.
When big funds like Cal Pension fund changes asset allocation from 75% stocks, 25% treasury to 60% stocks and 40% Treasury (all hypothetical ideas), you will see such effect.
See here, when market drowned nicely, 440B California pension funds are having -6.1% (YOY), they hedge, revise asset allocation…etc
Before them, we - retailers - are tiny !
