Rents headed for steep drop-off?

With Bay Area apartment rents headed for steep drop-off, investors should sell???

I am about to purchasing my first investment condo in Oakland or San Jose downtown. but…

After the drop off investors should buy


I like that idea. :slight_smile:

I have been telling people something and they are not listening.

You better wait for the deportation of undocumented people to end, or you may end up with thousands of empty units everywhere.

You’ve been warned. Take it or leave it.

1 Like

What signals are you monitoring that give you the go ahead to backup the truck? Better still, give us a heads up.

So according to the article, people are going to leave the Bay Area and move to… Sacramento!

LOL… I’m not sure if this will happen in my lifetime.


Not drinking the Kool-Aid yet… think about it, a lot of owners (if they were smart) have already refi’d their homes (investment or not) into the best low interests to date. Even if rents dropped some, a lot of us are still cash positive and we still need the tax breaks (depreciation). The reality is that I am not renting to folks who are undocumented or are in industries that would be hurting so their incomes are reasonably stable but not nearly enough to be buying homes. My rents were also purposely lower than market anyway so owners who follow that pricing strategy should be reasonably cushioned I would think as opposed to others renting at the very top price. All these folks have to live somewhere. Mind as well be with me. What am I missing?


I have houses both in the Valley and Sac. I am prepared. Bring it on! :slight_smile:


I know a couple people who relocated from the Bay Area to Sac…because they didn’t have the skill sets and aptitudes necessary to bring in the income to live here.
As for BH’s deportations I would be much more worried about Sac prices than Bay Area prices and rental values. Although I still believe that if it actually happens we’ll have 3/2’s currently occupied by 8 lettuce pickers housing a nice young couple of machinists instead.

If history is going to rhyme, usually the neighborhoods outside the fortress (near good schools + big employers) are the one who get hit first and hardest. Prices in fortress are usually quite stable.


Bingo! That’s why I stay away from the fringes and outskirts of the Bay. Sooner or later, rough weather is going to come and the job centers have better covering than other areas do. It is all about the jobs, people…

Serious question:
Can people provide a list please of the fortresses in Bay Area?


Rough weather came to my hood - but this place, a few hundred yards from an active landslide that brought Anna Eschoo, Jerry Hill, and Don Horsley among others out for a dog-and-pony show last Sunday went pending fast anyway. Not that I’d recommend a purchase out here for financial reasons - it’s a lifestyle, not a way to get rich. We are, in fact, the last to zoom and first to crash - and crash hard - in any real estate market. I bought my place for someone who held it for for 23 years and barely broke even.

It’s great to publish predictions. Is there any reason we should believe this one? Does the author have a track record of being right?


Boundary of fortress (referring to South Bay) changes slightly now and then, at this moment, should be:

Los Altos
Los Altos Hills
Mountain View
Palo Alto
West San Jose (95129, 95130)
West Sunnyvale (94087)

Los Gatos used to be part of the fortress, recent years lose favor, prices there appreciate by less than 50% from bottom, whereas those in Fortress appreciates nearly 100%.


Me too.

No doubt, readily waiting ! By that time, hoping that I will be prepared for cash offer (as the rates may be higher than now) !

Not an authority on the subject, but when the last chit hit the fan, I was in Visalia CA. People from the BA flew over there following the myth of “in 6 months I will double my money”. I used beautiful, bigly words to tell them they had won the lotto, rent, keep your money, you name de warning or advise, they went dumb on me. Some pocketed $300K or more and were like drunken sailor looking for another drink of Kool Aid.

So, the outskirts of any city/county are the ones where most people will end up buying at the last moment, with enough time to settle down, then they start to notice that in every corner a for sale sign is posted. This, as occurred last time, ends up in the very high fortresses which have rich occupants that can sustain the slaughter for awhile. But eventually, they will jump ship. It’s a strategic move, allowed by law, if there are any in place when anything awful happens.

What you guys, as investors or landlords need to realize is if the numbers of people leaving your hood are lower than the incoming people. If technology can keep hiring people, outpacing the bleeding, and they are coming here to reach the American dream, then you won’t be in trouble.

If I mentioned the outskirts, it’s because as owners at that time, renters will do the same today. Supply and demand will hurt some landlords but benefit greater number of renters, or wannabe buyers. They will fly away from expensive places (given deportations are in place) to end up in San Jose, Oakland or farther North and those empty nests in SF or any other expensive place will have to find new tenants, which may be renting affordable places in the places aforementioned, leaving you with the cat in the sack.

I just know, that the law of numbers, the law of supply and demand supersedes any prediction.

Keep your eyes on the ball. Yesterday, some exemplary situations were narrating a tell tale of something worse to come. I hope not, I’d like to be positive, but after seeing and hearing the Hispanic community, my community what’s going on, ain’t good and the point is that we all are, and we all will be in the same boat. Believe me.

So restrictive… people not living in those zips will be crying themselves a river. :slight_smile:

1 Like


These fortresses will keep on expanding, conquering new territories and annexing them into the new fortress. Remember, silicon valley used to be nothing but farm land.

If you can identify the next fortress-to-be and buy ahead of the crowd, you can be filthy rich.