Secular inflation is here

Summers predicted X.

X didn’t happen.

Seems like you only need at most an elementary school education to reach conclusion. No?

That is both ironic and makes sense…what else is someone with a creative writing degree supposed to do!

1 Like

Summers was always right. What is being talked about I don’t understand. Anyways… gotta go.

No. Degrees don’t matter much. We all have brains. Look at the evidence presented in the article and think for oneself.

To me that’s pretty easy. Like I said I don’t know why it matters what degrees the author has. Summers said X needs to happen before inflation goes down. Turns out inflation went down without X happening.

What am I supposed to believe? Just because Summers went to Harvard I need to suspend my thinking and agree with him 100%? Does it matter other Ivy League trained economists said otherwise?

Oh boy. That’s pretty funny considering the lack of independent thought on “climate science”. Ok, it’s actually hilarious.

Retailers still have excess inventory and will need to discount to move it. I’m honestly surprised they aren’t being more aggressive about it.

For manufactured goods and non-branded apparel (fast fashion and casual wears), way cheaper to build directly from Chinese companies. So retailers including AMZN is under pressured. No need to buy in physical stores or online stores (e.g. AMZN). I go to physical stores for grocery and branded apparel (mostly to return wrong sizes/ color).

I go to thrift stores. Older quality-made stuff. Hardwood furniture. Barely used clothes in styles I like that have “made in USA” tags and will last years longer than new stuff. Electronics for pennies. If you only need it once just return it and claim a value 3x what you paid for it. The IRS will credit you back all your money. Some of that stuff gets sold and re-sold multiple times and it all supports local charities.

.

That’s the trend for those ESG woke crowd. You’re joining them?

Buying what I have donated?

I can’t be bother to fill up the form that Goodwill gave to me.

National gasoline prices are down 43% from a year ago. Local conditions vary. Maybe you forgot $6/g gas last year. Antidote. My partner just fired his laborer who demanded $40/hr. They all got spoiled this winter getting $50/hr. No try there’s less work… wages will drop.

Energy price drops effect the whole economy… especially goods that have to be shipped… definitely deflationary


2 Likes

Just curious - will it have any effect over RE prices?

RE prices are stable or headed up… definitely affected by interest rates which will come down when the Fed reduces rates.
Lower gas prices help RE values for commuters. I see the Sacramento MSA RE prices bottoming out. The low end is definitely firming up. One friend just sold her house in a week in Eldorado Hills. Asking $625k… low end .

Still a sellers market in South Lake Tahoe

Looks like people are getting off the “secular inflation” train now.

We “are coming to the conclusion that inflation might have been one of the many results of the pandemic shock … In our opinion, high inflation may turn out to be relatively transitory rather than persistent as widely feared.”

“… the core CPI inflation rate has been mostly boosted by the rent component of the CPI, which accounts for 34.6% of the total CPI and a whopping 43.5% of the core CPI. … As rent inflation continues to moderate, so will the core #CPI.”

They really need to define what “over time” means by reaching their 2% goal. It is on the right trajectory. They admit it takes 12-18 months for the full impact of a rate hike. If they keep increasing until we are at 2%, then they’ll have over tightened by a substantial amount. I really wish someone would ask these questions and take them to ask on it. Instead, we get grand standing and politicians trying to score points with their base. Then we have a media that doesn’t understand enough to ask real questions.

1 Like

Even they do not exactly know the answer.
So, it’s an iterative process, in spite of their expertise and models. Also, they look at historical inflation occurences and tamping down efforts and its effects on overall economy to make judgement calls.
It’s tricky to not cause recession while bringing inflation down. I think historically that hasn’t happened or almost never happened.

1 Like

JPow is preparing the market for July rate hike.

He only expects one or two more hikes tho.

Remember the hysteria when we had high gas prices last year? It’s all Biden’s faults I was told. Where did all those people go?

It’s all Newsom’s fault … not $3.29 in California

He’s messing up AZ prices as well. $3.80 to well over $4 here.
Under $3 when Trump was in and we weren’t at war with domestic energy.