I paid under MSRP for my bimmer. Jap car prices gone crazy
Which is crazy since does food demand really vary that much in a recession? Does everyone decide to go on a diet to save money? It just goes to show the cost run up was BS. I wonder how much was traders bidding up contracts.
“Yields extended losses after the ISM manufacturing index came in at 53, slightly below a Dow Jones estimate of 54.3.”
That’s still a strong ISM number. The bond market is starting to think the fed will stop raising rates sooner than the fed says.
According to blogosphere, Fed is likely to stop raising rates after Sep.
This is my own guess estimates, do not take any actions based on this. Sharing my thoughts, not a financial, nor stock advice as market can do anything (up or down ) at anytime
You both are correct. If FED increases 0.75% (which is likely) next 2 times, the current FED rate 1.6% reaches to 3.10%. This may be the best path for FED now and going to keep that 3.10% till end of year.
The side effect, which actually FED is aiming now, is yield curve inversion. Current yield difference (10Y-3M) is 1.15%. When FED adds 1.5% on FED funds rate, the yield curve is going to be inverted.
At that time, we get into recession, junk IPOs file bankruptcy, followed by mass lay off during Oct-2022 - Mar-2023, Demand drastically stops there that controls inflation.
Never think FED team or entire government team do not know any of these !
Do not believe any one who says FED does not know anything ! They are masterminded monsters/experts to pull the triggers !!
This is good for economy, good for inflation control, but worst for buy & hold stock investors (which blue team assumes Rich people).
If this isn’t a P&D , they seem to have an idea on how to extract it ‘clean’
Stellantis just gave them about 70M as well.
Haven’t done the research but the presentations on their site were pretty impressive ! Haha
Many signs of inflation might be under control. The black swan event is China open its economy. The revenge spending from Chinese would cause inflation to rocket to double digits.
It’s also going to increase supply though.
Americans Have Had It With Inflation
Consumers are cutting back on spending as they contend with historically high inflation
Supply couldn’t reach USA because
Containers are also full of stuff, can’t go to collect supply from China.
Then we probably don’t need more stuff. I think the supply shortages are VERY limited at this point. Repeating supply shortages gives execs free cover for missed revenue on earnings calls. No one actually questions, since they’ve been hearing it for 2 years. It’s a lot better for execs to say the revenue miss is due to supply chain than customers aren’t buying stuff.
Falling Commodity Prices Raise Hopes That Inflation Has Peaked
Oil, wheat, natural gas, lumber, corn and other raw materials ended a tumultuous quarter near or lower than March prices
It is all about wage inflation. Unemployment will need to go over 6% for that to break. Looks like that is the Fed plan. Recession is here already.
Glut of Goods at Target, Walmart Is a Boon for Liquidators
Off-price chains are awash in appliances, apparel and outdoor furniture that never made it to stores
Some retailers are crazy over stocked. When people return items, they just refund the money and don’t even take the item back. They don’t have space to store returned items. How crazy is that?
May be a good time to upgrade some of our appliances!