.
Do you know how to read?
There is a difference between what is happening and what might be happening.
Note also the word “may”.
Smart monies are playing it safe. Smart monies will not wait to see those happen before acting.
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Exactly correct. This is exactly FED is trying to do, but ostensibly telling pain. Without the above happening, there is no way FED is going to control inflation.
Correct. Go back to 2007 (Oct) -2009 (Mar) same has happened 18 months. Now, it is exact replica 2021 (nov) started, we are in middle (Just 10 months over) and Still FED is adding rate hike.
We may have another 6-9 months to see such issues.
How I am predicting we are in the middle? It is basically from Elliot wave of 2007-2009 cycle ABC, Now also same cycle 2021-2023 cycle ABC is going on.
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100% true, they make and break it.
We are not knowing as no news/media giving any prediction. Once market bottomed and recession over, 100 people will Claim they predicted upfront !
Just remember: New/Media are just giving running commentaries, they do not know anything but how to attract the viewers.
What exactly is “playing it safe”? Are you playing it safe?
Who exactly are these “smart money” people anyway.
Correct. Growth companies returns are priced in like this diagram exponentially. Value companies are flat returns.
If 10% reduction reduces returns exponentially and their correct value changes are too big 20%-30% as market sees continuous negative growth next few years (Bearish times).
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Watch out whose net worth increases after this year, some people like Warren Buffet, Bill Ackmann, Carl Icahn or some big banks or some wall street funds who plan it well ahead in the game.
When entire market is going down, how can they (some funds) grow their networth unless they are the creator of the issue (sell off ! ).
For example: A known friend, who graduated recently, is hired by a financial institution as Sr.Financial Analysts for $250k pay/year.
His job is to analyze perspective companies, produce report for their investment division. The company employs around 10-25 such analysts for various sectors.
They produce all fundamental analysis, reports based on which investment division runs.
When company pays him 250k pay, how much return company gets out of such job? Such companies take proper analysis and they are part of sell off like asset allocation from 80:20 (stock:cash) to 60:40 (stock:cash)…etc
This is a big subject on its own. Just scan here https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/financial-analysis/
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Ackmann makes his money off fees on his hedge fund. I don’t think his funds’ returns are good. Most of his moves strike me as dumb, like doing some convoluted SPACs and selling Netflix at the bottom.
I am not aware Buffett and Icahn “play it safe”. They are known to pounce when markets are down. I actually expect them to be playing aggressive right now.
Being a farmer, the EPA, bureaucrats, environmentalists, animal rights advocates and many others like vegans anti GMO anti chemicals and wetlands advocates are determined to make food as expensive as possible. Their goal? But the upshot will be mass starvation especially in the developing world. High food prices hurt the poor the most. Checkbook liberals can afford the most expensive food possible.
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I just showed some examples, not necessarily they are, but lot of wall street people are there.
No one will come forward and show openly how they growth and what they do, every one is like legal criminals in this industry.
This financial market is, in fact, as big as tech industries, mostly centered at New York, spread across worldwide.
NYC is a big casino run by crooks.
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Good chart. Was wondering how to express in words or formula. Your chart is 
AAPL Current EPS = 6.05
EPS next 5Y growth 9.48
AAPL = current sma200 price 160 assumes this growth
Year 2023 EPS = 6.05 * (1+9.48/100) = 6.62
Year 2024 EPS = 6.05 * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) = 7.25
Year 2025 EPS = 6.05 * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) = 7.94
Year 2026 EPS = 6.05 * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) = 8.69
Year 2027 EPS = 6.05 * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) * (1+9.48/100) = 9.51
Total EPS for next 5 years = 40.01 (This is expected return when investor pay $160 for AAPL)
If next apple results indicate 5% additional year over year growth than current, then
Year 2023 EPS = 6.05 * (1+14.48/100) = 6.93
Year 2024 EPS = 6.05 * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) = 7.93
Year 2025 EPS = 6.05 * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) = 9.08
Year 2026 EPS = 6.05 * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) = 10.39
Year 2027 EPS = 6.05 * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) * (1+14.48/100) = 11.89
Total EPS for next 5 years = 46.22 ($6 EPS extra he is actually going to get)
In short, you paid $160 (SMA200) now and you expected a return of $40 as cumulative EPS, where as you are going to get $46.22.
The new buyer will see opportunity to earn more after the results, he is ready pay extra premium to buy AAPL and this results price increase.
Now, OKTA and/or MDB drops 10% growth and market sees next 3-5 years sluggish economy, then market adjust based on cumulative return
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BTW: Such equation are nicely presented in Stephen penman Accounting for value first chapter!
Aswath Damodharan uploads his class videos freely in YouTube. He goes through step by step how to value a company within 30 minutes video.
Those teach much more than what I say here. It is worth listening videos or reading that book
Review here:
One final word: Do not pick up high EPS growth stocks as they may be priced in already.
Market can bring down or up split second any level any stock single day like OKTA/MDB/NFLX.
Finally, investors will realize individual stock picking (for 10x or 100x) is hard than investing in index ETF!
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Thinking can do with DD and intelligence is wrong.
Pure luck 
Is a bet that you have the luck
OKTA and MDB are example now. Yesterday, after hours, one of the top 20 holders of the stock sold (silently) his stake after seeing results. The party that sold his full stake was well prepared, well planned. He decided to crash the stock after results for his benefit. This brings down the value drastically. Above operation can be done by few millions as the company is small.
During initial stage of MRNA & BNTX, they were dropped from $180 to $89 like this. After a month, I came to know that Fidelity Funds reduced 50% of holding, almost 2B-3B holdings reduced.
However, to do the same with VOO, it is hard and needs billions of dollars (only big funds can do).
Investor needs to DD a company exceptionally going well and strong that no one (esp top 20 holders) do not like to get rid of it.
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Amazing. They voted to create a council which has freedom to regulate an entire industry. Who’s holding the council accountable?
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costs will go up, just like gas prices are highest here.
The benefits of scale will be robbed from the large chains leading to less efficiency.
Problem is CA thinks it’s a separate country. However, within a country, with costs rising in one particular state, businesses and people will move to other states where cost of living is lower, which is already happening.
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