No. I didn’t miss it. Somebody here is saying that your opinion is not worth it because he has data. Can you imagine you just posting data, no comments? Duh!
This article is extremely good. Gives me some insight into Tesla. Elon is the biggest con man in tech.
I heard that the Nevada guy building Tesla’s batteries failed to deliver. They are working on the subject, and they will come back with a surprise production. Words from somebody I know in that company.
There’s an amazing chart what shows the original guidance of 200,000 model 3 deliveries this year down to the current estimate of 1,000. I’m pretty sure if any other company missed that badly the stock would tank 90%.
The interesting thing is everyone is assuming model 3 will fix the cash flow. I wonder if they’ll hit a product rate fast enough to be gross margin positive on the car. If the model 3 is gross margin negative, then it’ll only accelerate the cash burn. We should know by the middle of next year. That’s when Tesla will need to raise cash again.
I am holding out for 10m units a year or until Musky returns from Mars…
By the time Musk recovers the production challenges, market may likely crash. Tesla is good candidate when market crashes and stock goes down. IMO, Tesla will not file bankruptcy, but have long life after market recovers. At this point, I do not really know how low it can go, but waiting for to go down.
Why doesn’t he sell. Then he can spend his time on rockets
I agree they’d be one of the most vulnerable companies if the market declines. It’s crazy to bet against a company in a bull market. You don’t need to be a hero and try swimming against the current. There’s too many opportunities to make money on things going up. My eye is on them for the next recession though.
However, nobody will have any money in a recession to buy anything. If you are holding your cash out for the next recession you will likely miss out on many good opportunities for something that might not materialize in the timeframe that you desired.
Puts are very cheap. Also, I think most of us on here were buying RE and stocks during the last recession. That’s why we have such large gains since then.
Um… I had no money or was too sad to buy anything at the last bottom. I was only able to take advantage starting in 2012 after the market already bounced back in a significant way. That’s when I started to put money into Tsla, fb, Yelp, and bidu using margins. So you can say that I missed the bottom and only invested when the market was on its way up (like it is now… )
Your reasoning? If good, may follow you into TSLA when it “crashes” … would buy calls or LEAPS calls… lower capital
Not good to bet against market trend. That is, don’t long if it is a bear market… join the bears and short any re-bounces. Of course, don’t short in a bull market.
Safer that way.
Safer but not as profitable.
It is statistically. I mean using expected returns over many cycles.
Eddie tam said he knows people close to Musk. Musk is tired of running Tesla and may want to bail.
Heard rumours that Elon Musk is getting tired of Tesla, he is much more interested in SpaceX which is worth over usd20bn now, and may go IPO quite soon, hoping for perhaps as high as usd100bn valuation, which would be bigger than Tesla. It is probably already making money or at least closer to profitability than Tesla.
Tesla r&d and capex will likely keep rising…in any case, for these concept companies, very important NOT to make profits anytime soon…classic example is of course amazon…if Tesla starts making profits very soon, it will fall back to earth, and it’d just be a normal car company, which would be valued at like 6x P/E…so again, it is all about growth, and new concepts that wow the customers as well as the investors.
From I have heard from people who know Elon well, he is quite keen w SpaceX IPO…
He is tired long ago. I think he tries to convince Tim Cook to buy over… unfortunately Apple is very particular about corporate culture fit and doesn’t like the founders to leave (unlike Google that tends to cold storage or kick out founders)… Musk has inculcated a completely different corporate culture there.
Tesla without Musk is worthless. That’s why Musk is still hanging on.
First, The issue with Elon is too aggressive and over stressing team, over committing. Considering Elon’s market & Pressure, competitors like GM rolled his cars.
Elon has received (invested amount) lot of money during bullish period and made all the infrastructure to roll out higher capacity. All he needs to do is streamline his process and roll out the cars properly (Management issue).
In addition, TESLA itself built on low cost (Fremont factory 1.5 B worth he bought it at low costs). Those are hidden book values.
TSLA is charging high price, while cost is low. Elon continues to make R&D and rolling out new models, new limits on charging.
Even today, he is the leader in EV technology. In next 10 years, entire Car industry will change to EV from Gas (some people dispute), but this is true.
TSLA is best to buy as stocks, not options, to hold for next decade, wait for opportunity.
Confucius said that safer is better than profitable on the long run.
People who like to gamble in the stock market are the first one to cry why?
I follow conservative approaches, rather than a quickie.