Your prejudice against Jim Cramer is astounding, and miss out a lot! TSLA $300. Another is DT. He knows when momentum has started. He is very much into momentum trading.
GM is already at $166B in revenue and generating $20B cash flow. Tesla is worth 3x more. That means Tesla needs to be around $500B in revenue and $60B in cash flow. Even your super optimistic projection is well short of that. Who wants to pay a stock price today for revenue that might be there 10 years from now?
The latest report shows a big drop in S/X in Q4. That’s from Tesla’s own earnings report.
Same could happen. Tesla cars. Tesla trains. Tesla rockets. Tesla buses. Tesla trucks. Tesla scooters.
Tesla battery. Tesla cloud services. Tesla chips.
I was thinking Elon Musk has openly teased chip designers & ML SWEs to join him, it could be targeted at project Titan - con entice them to join him by offering an option to work for a world-class celebrity CEO rather than the big Bob, thereby killing Project Titan.
Only retail investors are short sight traders, buy low sell high.
Big funds, big mutual funds, retirement funds, hedge funds, big banks…the major big players are… Reason: Once they buy, they can not sell easily as they need to pay heavy taxes. Unless company futures (fundamentals change) are not going to sell but they hold…hold…hold.
They have access to better software, data, and research analysis who create reports, review and approve.
Even if recession occurs, they hold or buy protective puts…as they do not want to pay big taxes which will drastically reduce their AUM, that results investors unhappiness, higher draw down.
Big funds run like a company, say like AAPL and AMZN…, they have research analysts, finance people who sees P/L, approval process.
Plenty of reason why they sell like tax loss harvesting, I do not deny.
But they are not like us, trade, but they are like your AAPL holding or WQJ TSLA holding, buy and hold for many years…They analyze 10 to 20 years futures, create reports, have management approval process to buy/sell.
They pay software subscription like Bloomberg terminal ($2000/licence/month) or refinitiv access etc. There are plenty of software for them to use and those software consultants are charging $300/hr…
They pay well above an IT engineer pay for analysts job and analysts are bound with NDA (non-disclosure agreement) and insider trading. They are not supposed to buy/sell stocks without mgmt approval…etc lot of restrictions.
This is a big industry…investment community…master the investment art and they make multi-millions and billions.
We , retail investors do not have access, data or resources to analyze, follow just prices or market.
That’s not at all how funds work. Their revenue is the management fees. Their profits are the management fees less operating expenses. They are investing client money. The clients pay taxes on the gains when they sell the fund.
Say Ray Dalio, he hold 150 B. He can not trade like what we do. They buy AAPL or AMZN like companies, they freeze it for ever until they feel these two companies will file bankruptcy like GE issue…They do make reports for next 10-20 years and buy the future.
If there is 10% drop in value, investors run away from his fund. That is why Ray Dalio bought 1.5B put options to protect his funds as they can not trade (heavy taxes).
Any fund company above 100M has to have same structure, no other way as their tax/financial implications are huge.
He has to see his AUM grows from 150B to 200B to 250B, show growth rate better than S&P or other funds…earns commission during his process.
TA is always short term, based on fluctuations. FA is long term, lot of factors to account.
TA is like mason building a bridge, he can build it to some level, but not a golden gate bridge. FA is like big engineering group building a bridge, like golden gate bridge.
If someone or team having multi-million or billion, they are forced to go for FA without which it will be fool’s money.
Even in many places you have indicated Apple is moving jobs to Texas and people are buying homes there…etc. You look the existing rent, expenses and how much you yield you get from either Austin home or Cupertino home. In this process, You are looking fundamental aspect of it, more and more jobs, more and more people migration, home price increase.
You are not buying/selling based on price fluctuation, which is just TA.
Fundamentals are the key driver pushing the price/momentum. There is no other secret - universal truth.
If you do not agree, that is fine, we are good at agree to disagree !
Now you see how GOOGL recovers (like the way AMZN recovered) !
Hmm, you are talking theory and like big boys or you think you’re a genius I now formulate an opinion that people after reading what literature/ textbooks said, they think they are in the same class, professors/ big boys, not aware that as an individual, @hanera, you have to think from that perspective.
GOOGL - Too much distraction. Focus, focus, focus. Focus is saying no to many ideas/ tasks.