It is a known truth, based on past history. Stocks go zip zag always !
Will this any way help finding whether now is the bottom or after 15 days or after 2 months or after 6 months or already bottom is over?
What the heck is he talking about? Which 6 bear markets?
Fed fund rate in the last 10 years looks like this:
From 2013 to 2019 rate has been increasing. None of his previous 6 bear markets happen in those years?
Market’s rational is always skewed a little bit.
When they correct, it goes over correction and they recover it goes too much bullish.
Very close common phenomena that comes often.
However, it is no way going to help us know top or bottom.
This is exactly given in Elliot wave 1-A-B-C as it never goes straight.
The first time this happened the 10-year yield fell, and we had a 2-day market rally. This time the 10-year yield is rising and stocks are falling. It’s getting real.
Hopefully not another GFC.
I honestly don’t get it. Core inflation which is the one the Fed uses was 6.6% which is a high. The gap between headline and core is shrinking. That means less of the inflation is due to food and energy. It will be stickier.
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Impossible to read market, aggregate of many minds.
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Why is the market up today? I thought CPI was still bad. Are buyers tired of the negative news?
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I want to see the volume. It could be that it wasn’t as bad as feared, so there are no sellers combined with some short covering. If the volume is big, then we may have hit bottom. I’m skeptical since those 2 big up days we had didn’t have big volume.
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SPY volume on 9/30 was 153M which was the last big down day. Today’s volume was 142M. The two up days on 10/3 and 10/4 were 90M and 104M. The volume on up days is increasing. Tomorrow and Monday will be interesting. The market closed just above the 10-day.
Oddly, bond yields went higher. Lately, when bond yields go higher stocks go lower.
Because we were taught, by media, over and over, stocks are behaving rationally.
We forgot this truth => The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Slight change => aggregate of many financially criminal minds
Now market got into crazy state, daily unpredictable way!
Looks like recession confirmed !
Yup.
That’s not adjusted for inflation, so consumer spending is falling in real dollars.
“A Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday indicated that consumer prices rose 0.4%including all goods and services, and 0.6% when excluding food and energy.”
I haven’t seen anyone else point that out. The fed uses core numbers which are worse than overall numbers.
Now we have the worse case. Inflation is still high and spending is decreasing.
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Already in technical recession. The issue is when will unemployment rate increases to over 5%.
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In my view, unemployment goes to 7%-8% range without which inflation won’t come down. The FED team knows everything, but they won’t say openly. Entire 2023 screwed by lay offs, bankruptcies and unemployment issues. Anyway, it is a long process like 2007-2009 (now 2021-2023).
Be prepared for after shock waves similar to 2011 crash after 2009 crash. Every two years we will have some nice near 20% drop (based on past history guess work).
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Over the last month, I’ve gone with buying 1 (at least 1) TQQQ a day to keep my speculating inertia away. Hope I can keep it going for the next few rocky months.
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From Thursday:
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Whatever comment is outdated. Next week would be interesting. TSLA has made new low. AAPL not yet. WS is trying very hard. Really want to know what FUD can WS generates for AAPL to make new low. The last chance for WS is on Oct 27.
Chamath thesis.
Bear market. Algorithms sell first, then traditional funds follow, retail last.
Bull market. Retail BTFD, then traditional funds, lastly algorithms.
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