Longer the expiry, higher the cost, lower the profits !
Your initial quote was 6-8 weeks normalcy comes, I just added 2 more months.
If you expect it in 6 months, then case is different. However, VIX calls/puts are not available for us more than 6 months. I tried it and this VIX is unreliable as it can spike any time and drops any time. VIX spread kills some time.
For me, best route is SPY calls/puts (Time bound), or UPRO/SPXU (High risk, no time bound).
All these are Risky bets, lot of potential to lose entire amount when market moves opposite side.
People need to ensure 100% it is right before getting into these riskier routes.
I bought RGR at 46.10. My wife is all excited it’s at 47.06. And I bought her three guns. But she went to Smart and Final today and the shelves were empty. She is all bummed even though our larder is fully and we have plenty of guns. All we have is attitude. Like I told my dad when my mom put him in a rest home. Attitude is everything. And you might as well have good one. Because without a good attitude you got nothing. He was pissed she put him there but he lived 3 more years thanks to her bringing him cookies every day.
The good thing is I visited him every week for three years and became good friends. He was a lousy father but a good friend. Smartest person I ever knew.
I may still have this as an option to get some profits, at least 10% of allocation for this.
But for longer hold, regular dividend income, this is the best time to buy some stock, get ever lasting dividends like hanera gets, that is the ultimate way for investment.
I seek dividend cash flow instead of rental income cash flow by choosing REITs or utilities at once in 10 years deal.
What REiTs are you buying? I am afraid my tenants won’t pay rent thanks to Newsom giving them a holiday till June 1. Meanwhile I am kissing tenant’s butts. And I honestly like my tenants. Fixed a toilet today and they gave me a gallon of bootleg rum. Best rum I have ever tasted.
I bought some NLY & IVR and trying to DCA if it drops further. Unfortunately, most of the REITs went up.
I saw NLY bottom was $3.51 but closed at 5.32 yesterday, today close 5.25. Same way, IVR went down 2.75, but closed yesterday 5.44, today close at 5.30.
I am also watching to buy NRZ, AGNC and STOR (warren buffet holding), simple one is “O” Realty Income Corporation.
These are mortgage REITs. Risk is when they do not get profit, dividends will be cut, expecting near term dividend cuts. They are risky when foreclosure starts after recession.
This week, I have been telling many of friends, relatives and bloggers that market is changed, but no one believed except only one friend who just got 30% into market.
That means 90% fearful which is what the market makers need to get in.
Buffett always says that you should be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
Even though I change instantaneously on my investments, I am in high time this week. No calls, no puts , but all shares.
You say is only a temp bottom and not a multi year bottom, why bother? Moreover you may not warn them when to sell why would they buy as you say? For most people better to go sidelined till bad news is good news.
If I guess, S&P market may reach 2800 range (SMA200) and then can stay or drop from that level. Even if it drops back, the current deep discounts we may not get at that time.
For example, take my case of IVR and NLY, they were deep discounted price two days before IVR at 2.55 and NLY at 3.55, look at them where we are now, they are 100% jumped below its bottom !
Even S&P drops back after reaching SMA200, it is unlikely IVR and NLY to come to current 6.45 and 5.50 level !
Take the case of GM, it came down to $14.60, but now $18.59. Even though I sold huge amount of GM for profit, I retained 1/20th of my purchase position.
I thought you were sheltering in place. You make changes just like Jil. You have been at Costco a few days this week.
@DoctorOcho, doesn’t seem like there is a reason to rally today. If everyone expects bad numbers it should be priced in. You want to see those that are leveraged get out. IDK if they are out yet.
IMO, buy only red days, but not on green days. But be careful buying on green days which may end up loss.
I do not have fear on red days, but fearful on green days. I always tries to wait for red days and then buy it.
Since many equities are at 50% to 70% discount level, no retail investors have confidence to buy any, lot of financial helps from fiscal and monetary policies, big investors try to dip billions at rock bottom prices.
Market makers stay away. See VIX has drastically came down. Yesterday night, another blogger confirmed market is less volatile
BTW: These are some guess work, no back up data and it can go wrong, risk is there.
I don’t trust this bottom. We haven’t even made a bearish cross where the 50-day crossed below the 200-day. This would be an insanely fast V if it is the bottom.
The cruise ships and airlines are ripping higher, since it appears they’ll get a bailout. They are up 20-30%. They aren’t all equal in terms of how they are impacted and balance sheet. They shouldn’t blindly move together. They moved together on the way down due to panic.
VIX is still well above 30. 30 had been a high for over 5 years.
taking a break watching video 
kind of tired being locked to stock market. Don’t want my life = stock market
