EW waves are nested. That is can do EW from milliseconds to centuries. Theoretically can compute when is the highest probability but to apply all the rules would require complex programming and huge computing resources
There you are ! If you use every min data, you get some EW and if you use daily EW you will get some other results.
For day trading people use every min data, to traders like us, daily closing data is more than enough to provide (high level) prediction. If we sell at peak * 0.95 and buy at bottom * 1.05, this is major growth. Even 90% top and 10% bottom is way better to beat S&P.
IIRC, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre is the best trader we have last century, he made it manual way.
Even with complex programming and huge computing, it is pretty difficult to get it ahead. I do not have any good faith in artificial intelligence nor machine language.
May be, Jim Simon team would have done some thing secretly. Programs add some value, but it can not predict ahead.
Indices are up yet many stocks are down. Only a few heavyweights propping up the indices. Good? Few stocks appreciating usually occur at the start of and end of the bull market. Hmm…
After briefly touching 75, F&G is now back down to the 60s. Until I see a blow up to the high 80s or even to the 90s, I still think there is at least one more leg up.
There are still too many rational people making fun of retail bros, no sign of FOMO.
Blowoff top. Remind me of dotcom. Nonstop appreciation and any decline is BTFD until the top is reached then any BTFD is a bull trap. The problem is how to tell when the top is in? How to avoid being a Newton? Jump out too early, miss the huge gains, jump back in again and lost everything.
No one really knows the Top or Bottom until after the fact. As long as we are able to find 95% of top and 105% of bottom, we are good. Just before every fall, market makes multiple kangaroo jump and then goes down.
Jump out too early, miss the huge gains, jump back in again and lost everything. => Do not have FOMO, as no one clearly know the TOP except the makers.
IMO, not gains $10 is better than losing $1…Loss is a killer of our growth.