Today's Market 1/3-9

Gold actually exists. You can touch it. Wear it. Store it. It has industrial applications. Bitcoin is totally a figment of techie imagination. Nobody knows who invented it and no one actually has physical possession. It is the biggest con in history after Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/investing/bill-gross-stock-market-outlook/index.html

“This market is driven – yes – by intense speculation, but also by fiscally pumped, central bank-primed corporate earnings, which when discounted to present value by near zero nominal and in many cases negative real interest rates, produce record stock prices,” Gross said.

Agree.

“A lot of the market’s appreciation over the past two years, especially for growth stocks, has been due to lower real interest rates,” Gross said. A rally that will only continue if real yields stay “substantially negative,” he continued.

That is what is going to happen for years…

He attributes their potential down performance to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates at near zero for years.

Is that a typo? Replace down with up.

Growth stocks, particularly 2020’s biggest IPOs including Snowflake, Airbnb and Doordash will struggle to live up to the expectations of what Gross calls “day-trading Robinhoods,” he added. The same goes for SPACs or special acquisition companies and the “Teslas of 2020.”

The only expectation is the existence of a greatest fool. Plenty of them around, why would a rally ends?

Bill Gross is just upset he called it wrong. It’s a bull market when you are in it. It’s a bubble when you are not.

Gold is just as BS as Bitcoin. It has no practical use. Who put gold bars in their houses? Even drug dealers trust greenbacks more than gold.

:rofl:

That’s an easy and obvious call, but I haven’t seen anyone predict when zero percent rates will end. Unless it ends suddenly and without warning, then the party is going to keep going. Anything that causes rates to rapidly rise is going to destabilize the entire global financial system and make 2009 look like a tiny blip. Governments won’t be able to afford their debt. It’ll be total chaos.

We now have a multi decade trend of rates going lower. Each rate increase cycle ends below the prior cycle’s peak. Each rate cutting cycle goes lower than the prior cuts.

What events need to occur for rates to go up rapidly? I mean i know the govt could think about raising rates a quarter or half point a year or so from now. But I can’t seem to see how rates could ever go higher more meaningfully and what the catalysts would be.

Ok. I have seen enough. Dems have won both senate seats. D has control over senate.

Thanks Donald. The gift that keeps on giving.

:heart:

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I am joking of course. I don’t remember what it was exactly when I took it in middle school. 130s I think.

I’m still an idiot in many ways though.

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It’d require bond holders/buyers to lose all confidence in the ability of governments to make bond payments. Then they’d demand higher interest rates regardless of what the fed does. That’d lead to a full on currency crisis which would destabilize everything.

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What do you hope they’ll accomplish?

Not staging coups and subverting our democracy for starter.

Wow, a passive-aggressive non-answer… I’m shocked.

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Not good news. Higher taxes! Sell your stocks PM. I mean only stocks that have +ve earnings.

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More subsidies for EVs, batteries and solar. There is speculation on the EV forums that Biden will bring back the 7500 tax credit for manufacturers that have sold over 200k vehicles. Base Model 3 for $24k + TTL after credits and rebates. Tesla :hot_pepper: :hot_pepper: :hot_pepper:

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Manch wants correction to come, right. He will get even more recession!!

One more to add: Market won’t show such correction or recession immediately.

All 3 cases (Both Dems or Both Rep or one each), market will be exuberant immediately, but will show correction at a later point of time, and not tomorrow…

The drop will be sudden and surprise.

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@hanera,

This is a sample of how reckless Robinhooder (win or lose 15k in a day) ! For each call, someone needs to hold 100 shares !! This is creating abnormal volatility.

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Typical ending diagonal behavior.

PM QQQ and MU diving down! When market open, all my portfolio would be decimated.

Screen Shot 2021-01-06 at 5.36.36 AM
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Companies that hardly make money and loss making are ok.

Screen Shot 2021-01-06 at 5.39.35 AM

Hardly pay tax and still get tax credits??? Is there ever an incentive to work and make money when Democrats are in charge?

Didn’t close all position :sob:

QQQ going down is out of sync. Looks like lot of pessimistic sellers, but market makers are strong enough to buy from scared retailers.

I started buying/adding TQQQ pre-market. IMO, regular market recovers a lot as I do not see any correction now (Unless suddenly changes) !

@ptiemann made it now…I remember he took big amount with bitcoin when it was below $8000

There’s a massive rotation to cyclical material and industrial names. I guess everyone is betting on massive fiscal stimulus and a huge infrastructure bill. I can’t wait for those who complained about the deficit under Trump to complain about much bigger deficits under Biden.

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If AMC not going to bankrupt stage $2 is a great buy and hold !

It jumped 8% now.

Similarly, FDX was dropped from $300 to $250, and now turning upside.

Btw: These can go wrong anytime, please do your own research before any action.