We Are in Bear Market


#543

I seriously think they are screwing around with the stock market with this type of fake news. One reason as an individual investor I feel not so comfortable with stocks.


#544

Midterm election won’t have much impact on stock market since the result is already well known. The decline is driven by earnings and interest rate. And there is nothing that can save the stock market.

A Dem House can be good news to the market since it means no radical changes in the next 6 years. Tax cut 2.0 will be no more?

It’s amazing that Democrat held the House for 40 years before Clinton. Did we have a 40 year blue wave going on before 1994? There might be some fundamental reason at the human cognizance level that the trend starts to correct the overshoot.

“ Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway this week on “Fox & Friends” pointed to the 43 Republican House retirements as a major reason the GOP was likely to lose seats. She also tried to contrast the expected GOP losses with drubbings previous Democratic presidents have received. “No nonpartisan, sane prognosticator right now is predicting the 63 House seat losses that President Obama suffered in his first midterms in 2010, or even the 54” that Clinton lost in his first midterms in 1994, which gave Republicans the House for the first time in 40 years, she said.

A recent internal memo by White House political director Bill Stepien similarly contended that House Republicans’ goal this year is to minimize their losses.”


#545

https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-repurchases-more-than-900-million-of-stock-1541248428

Berkshire has started repurchasing its shares, at its low price. They have repurchased 928 Million, but their reserve is reduced from 111.10 Bln (Q2) to 103.64 Bln (Q3).

This means they have invested appx $6.532 Billion on various stocks when the market is dipped.

Looks like BRK bought lot of stocks on dip which we will come to know by Nov 14 & 15th.

IMO,i guess, market dip (so called bear market) is over with this !


#546

Bear market for China stocks, and tech esp semi stocks.


#547

This is about temporary dip happened with US market last Oct 2018. It is over by now.

If I guess, China is pulled by investor run-away in two parts.

  1. Any investment in USA is tax haven attractive after corp tax reduction. This has long term impact across various countries including China. Money will keep on flowing to USA continuously.

  2. Tariff impact may result in less consumption of goods. Trump will extend this until his 2020 elections as he is keeping such topics for his political wins. He will also keep all his immigration topics too until his next election. He is true politician, you know how politician behaves.

Until China economy recovers on its own, we have to wait.

If I guess more: If Trump gets full majority on both houses, his first aim is to somehow try firing Jerome Powell ! He wants his puppet in that position !!


#548

TCEHY, a China stock, dropped 48% over 9 months.


#549

MU, a semi stock, dropped 47.7% over 5 months.


#550

Regarding Techy, I feel it is gone case with China banning some Techy related games. I do not focus on any abroad stocks

I do not look at any ADRs other than WB stocks like TEVA and STNE. I simply trust “Berkshire would have done some ground work” and believe them blindly.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-indicts-chinese-taiwan-firms-011534758.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-chip-firm-fujian-jinhua-095928716.html

Even last week MU recovery is based on the above news that will not long last. This is sensational recovery, nothing to do with fundamentals.

Many times, I made loss with MU. Even though fundamentals are good, stock keep going down expecting future consumption reduction. Unable to get solid ground on the MU issue. Sold once for all and came out.

This company does not have diversification like NVDA.

We have plenty of good winners we can focus on.


#551

Factset November 2, 2018

For the third quarter to date (with 74% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), companies are outperforming recent averages in terms of the number of companies reporting positive surprises and the magnitude of the positive surprises. In terms of earnings, the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (78%) is above the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.8% above the estimates, which is also above the 5-year average. In terms of sales, the percentage of companies reporting sales above estimates (61%) is above the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting sales that are 1.0% above estimates, which is also above the 5-year average.

The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report), year-over-year earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 24.9% today, which is above the estimate of 19.3% at the end of the quarter. If 24.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest earnings growth since Q3 2010. All eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth. Nine sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth, led by the Energy, Financials, Communication Services, and Materials sectors.


#552


#553

Now we all know stocks sagged by elections.

As long as economy is doing good, stock fall is an opportunity to get the stock at low price.


#554

(b|f)ear not!


#555

Nerd.


#556

#557

#558

#559

Did not realize most world markets are down pretty big YoY.


#560

Another Nice Video