We Are in Bear Market

Arrest of CFO worries Jim Cramer, uncharted territory… Trump is pushing China very hard inlined with what his supporters want… two camps in WH… one wants a deal, one is hell bent to push China to give up its ambition. Basically the hardliners view China has challenged 皇权. Now we have to see whether the angels can win over satan.

Jim Cramer or market may say anything, US will not back out even if linked with Trade-war.

Reason:

Julian Ku, a professor at Hofstra University Law School, wrote on Twitter that the move was justifiable. “
US law prohibits exports of certain US-origin technologies to certain countries,” he said. “When Huawei pays to license certain US tech, it promises not to export to certain countries like Iran. So it is not unreasonable for the US to punish Huawei for flouting this US law.

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/country-guidance/sanctioned-destinations

US has specific list of countries banned its technology as those countries may use it for military purposes.

Set of Export Control Classification Number (ECCN) are listed. Any company violate, they will enforce the law no matter whether it is US company or else where any country company.

Every company in USA, must check the system (Plenty of software systems showing ECCN) and declare it at port of exit.

Exporters and reexporters should be aware that other U.S. Government agencies administer regulations that could also impact their export or reexport transactions. For example, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also implements certain sanctions against Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria. Exporters and reexporters are responsible for complying with all applicable regulatory requirements.

It is exactly like “Elon Tweet” and the SEC punishment, US will hold responsible CEOs/CFOs level only !

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How do you model 20% iPhone sales drop in China? How low will AAPL sink?

How about 50%?

Trump is playing with fire. Sooner or later the whole world will burn down.

He wants China to make mistake so he can do something. Behave like hanxin is the right approach.

Internal pressure in China is mounting.

Maybe they can swallow it but this is a deep, deep insult. Makes me think there is nobody in his admin who understands the Chinese. The Chinese may swallow their pride for now but they won’t forget.

This will be like the opium war.

What kind of retaliation has China done to England after the opium war? I don’t think it’s done a thing after almost 200 years.

They took back Hong Kong. Yeah, otherwise, nothing. So Chinese are weak and easy to mess with. :smile:

Yes, they let other people mess around with them but let out their anger on those Hong Kongers, who have become a punching bag for the Chinese… :slight_smile:

China was ruled by foreigners for over many centuries, aggregate possibly over a thousand years. Mongols, Manchus, xian bei, …

It is xianbei not xian pi.

You can pretty much say the same about England. It was conquered by the Romans, Vikings, and Normans.

Just fire Navarro and that dude with the weird mustache. Don’t you know they are sabotaging you, Mr. President? Geez, even a rock would be smarter.

And please don’t take other country’s women as hostages. That doesn’t look good.

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:skull_and_crossbones: :scream: :skull_and_crossbones: :scream: :skull_and_crossbones:

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Short SPX or long SPXU

So much crying over enforcing laws. The law existed long before Trump. I guess some people would prefer we don’t enforce things and let others trample all over us. That seems like an odd way to earn respect.

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Not only that, issue started before him, from 2009 range, has been misusing US technology, secretly moving to Iran, with different company name Skycam - solely owned by Huawei…etc

Irrespective of trade-war tension, this case will continue to go.

Media/news/Stock believing sensational story is another opportunity to grab fundamentally strong companies.

I do not know whether we are heading towards recession or not, fundamentals are good, but labor market softening with FED rate hikes.

FED will stop hiking rates permanently from now on.

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For more info, every export company will check database/cloud services such as this to ensure they comply international law.

https://www.livingstonintl.com/

US, Euro, Japan and many countries include restriction on exports so that their high technologies are not used in Military and nuclear technologies.

When they violate, directly or indirectly, they are held accountable for the violation.

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I worked for a company that started sellling in Iran after the Obama deal. The process to prove compliance was pretty extensive. We had to show country of origin for every component. We also had to certify the product didn’t contain certain technologies. I had the joy of leading the component part.

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Murder of US nationals, and that include green card holders, is against US law. Do we send marines to Saudi to arrest MBS?

Putin sent spies to kill ex KGB agents in Britain. He violated U.K. law. Should we arrest him and extradite him to Britain?

Diplomacy needs finesse. It’s not black and white law enforcement.

Besides, why must everybody in the world obey American law? Do Americans need to obey sharia law and Chinese law? If one day China declares it’s against Chinese law to trade with Taiwan, every American company should stop trading with Taiwan or else their CEO face arrest?

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Are they (congress and president) not taking action against Saudi? They are taking actions, but military is not the immediate solution.

Even after Benghazi incident, authorities taken action, but not immediately military action. IIRC, no military action taken place,bigger than this issue.

Obama+Hillary were accused for inaction. Government has to resolve the disputes in various stages of dispute resolution.

In fact, current govt actions are faster and stricter than Obama period.