One more, the materials sector:
Materials sound directly related to trade wars?
Almost all stocks reached SMA200 level.
Including big banks like BAC, WFC and JPM, results are good, but stocks stays down. I would suggest “Wait until Nov 10th” and then decide which are the sectors.
Our vp said some phrase i liked. Stairs up, elevator down.
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Mining, which has huge exposure to China, and housing related.
Regional banks are surprising. They have large exposure to commercial RE and some blew up.
YTD looks bad for regional banks, but they are just around the 2-year low. I used to own shares of one but sold too early.
Minor quakes are necessary to release pressure from time to time. No one wants a massive earthquake like the one from 1906.
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I can totally picture you dancing on our graves.
“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” - Albert Einstein
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Just look at CAT. They had nice revenue growth, big profit growth, and the stock got whacked.
I’m confident in FB future revenue. They’ve already proven they can reduce ads, charge more, and increase revenue by doing it. They aren’t even monetizing what’s app. They have 3 apps with over 1B users. The size of network on all 3 is a huge moat. The way they pivoted from not even thinking about mobile to a majority of revenue from mobile was amazing. They’ll continue to out execute google, snap, and twitter for online ads.
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Increasing cpm is not necessarily hard, for a company that just started ads recently, these gains are seemingly huge, but it all shrinks. In a down turn, fb will get whacked. I do own fb, though, for the next 5 yrs.
Case in point: people have started playing with attribution models to attribute conversions to their impressions, to be able to stay competitive. This is not a good sign.
You are also dismissing their off platform advertising platform, audience network. The rev share is probably anywhere from 70%-85%, but games compete with fb in terms of user time, so they must grow into that as well. Theya re competing with google on that
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Thanks God our people are depending on the performance of S&P 500.
Now, there’s a dumb person not knowing what he is mumbling jumbling about. Is that contagious?
I do agree on the above statements.
I do not know the break up of FB click ads.
Whatever I know, FB was selling users data to clients. Clients program it using FB to propagate huge revenue. This is now curtailed, revenue stream drop. I do not know what percentage of revenue.
All the 3 apps are not rev generating now and may not add any value now (this qtr).
FB does not have diversified products like Google. That is why I am not touching FB,even though it is fallen heavily, but getting into GOOGL and AMZN.
I may possibly deeply review after the FB results (Oct 30, 2018) and then decide (definitely not before).
The reason I mentioned down turn risk applies to Google as well. Advertising dollar shrinks a lot during down turn, right? FB has 0 diversification to that. Google tries. That’s why their premium is higher, imho.
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Ahhh…………I love this guy……….
I hope some blind people can now see the light of sanity and stop following divisive and destructive people.
“The worst may not be over. President Trump and the Fed need to stop fighting over what they believe is a red-hot economy and they need to realize that business has slowed, as unpalatable as that may be. Until that happens, you need to stay cautious. We’ll get through this, as a lot of it is man-made, but the people who made it have to change their minds before we can be too positive, even with these now dramatically lower stock prices.”
Google is still over 90% ad revenue, so it’s not very diversified.
2/3 apps are generating revenue now. The fact they have one to go means there’s that much more room for growth. It already has over 1B users. Their revenue per user is $24/year. Even if what’s app achieves half of that it’d add $12B/yr in revenue. That would be 30% growth from current revenue levels.